Could MI Swing The Presidential Race? MI Voting History

MICHIGAN — It’s no secret that Michigan is a highly coveted state in the 2024 presidential race. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have made numerous campaign stops in the hope of securing Michiganders’ votes in the swing state.

Current polls — and the site 270ToWin — show a toss-up in the Great Lake State.

Polls are now closed. Early results in Michigan show Harris with more than 93,000 votes to Trump's 33,000, but with only 2 percent of votes counted.

Michigan Presidential Voting Trends

Historically, Michigan has been a good predictor of who will win the presidential race. Between 1900 and 2020, the state has voted for the winning candidate more than 74 percent of the time. However, over the last two decades, Michigan has chosen the winning candidate nearly 67 percent of the time.

Over the long term, the state has leaned Republican — voting for the GOP candidate nearly 55 percent of the time since 1900. A Republican has captured Michigan’s vote 17 times since 1900, while a Democrat has won the state 13 times, and in 1912, Theodore Roosevelt won Michigan running as a Progressive.

But in recent decades, Michigan has gone blue far more often, voting for the Democrat 83 percent of the time — just as it did in 2020.

A Democrat has carried Michigan in every election since 1992, except for 2016, when Trump won the state by a slim margin of 47.5 percent of the vote compared to Hillary Clinton’s 47.3 percent. It was the narrowest margin of victory for a presidential race in Michigan’s history, as well as the narrowest margin for any state in the 2016 race.

According to 270ToWin, “From 1972 through 1988, (Michigan) voted exclusively Republican, before becoming part of the 'blue wall' that voted Democratic in six consecutive presidential elections from 1992 through 2012.” Since 1992, Michigan has chosen the same candidate as other “blue wall” states Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Michigan Electoral Votes

Like neighboring state Illinois, Michigan’s share of electoral votes has declined over the years. For the 2024 race, it carries 15 electoral votes.

Economic turmoil since the 1970s has slowed population growth in Michigan relative to other states, resulting in less electoral clout, according to 270ToWin. “After peaking at 21 in the 1970s, the state has shed electoral votes after each subsequent Census. A loss of one in the 2020 Census brings it to 15 for the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections.”

Presidential Ties To Michigan

There’s only one president who was from Michigan, and he wasn’t even born in the state.
Gerald Ford, the 38th president, was born in Nebraska, but he and his mother moved to Grand Rapids when he was just two weeks old.

Given the name Leslie Lynch King, Jr., at birth, he was renamed Gerald R. Ford, Jr., after his stepfather, as a toddler.

He has a special place in history as the only U.S. president who was not elected, either as president or vice president. Instead, Ford was nominated as vice president after the resignation of Spiro Agnew in 1973. Less than a year later, he was sworn in as president after President Richard Nixon also resigned amid the Watergate scandal.

After Ford was sworn in, he gave a speech, famously declaring, "our long national nightmare is over.”

The Gerald R. Ford Presidential Museum is located in Grand Rapids, and it’s also the burial site for the former president and his first lady, Betty Ford.