Here's How Likely A White Christmas Is For MI This Year

MICHIGAN — The probability of a white Christmas is historically around 10 percent in the Detroit area, a projection based on three-decade averages in snow accumulation, temperatures and other climatological data.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s white Christmas probability calculations represent exact science. But they don’t always match the reality on the ground, or what current forecasting models suggest for Michigan.

AccuWeather plans to release its full white Christmas forecast at mid-month, but said in a media advisory Thursday that despite bitterly cold air across much of the northern and eastern U.S. this week, a pattern change on the horizon could lead to milder temperatures with less snow on the ground before the holidays.

Right now, according to AccuWeather the best chances of seeing snow on Christmas morning are in the mountains and northern U.S. Big cities that have the greatest likelihood of a white Christmas are Denver, Chicago, Indianapolis, Boston and New York.

There has historically done a better chance for snow on Christmas Day the farther north you travel in Michigan, eventually hitting a 100 percent chance in parts of the Upper Peninsula, according to the climatological data.

In the Detroit area, the probability of a white Christmas is between 25 percent and 50 percent, according to AccuWeather, which also uses NOAA historical data in its forecast.

Like other climatological data sources, AccuWeather says the chances for a white Christmas grow the farther north you travel in Michigan, with the majority of northern Michigan getting a more than 75 percent chance of snow on Christmas Day.

The milder Pacific air mass is expected to take over and even areas that have snow on the ground could see it melt away before Christmas, the private weather company said.

NOAA’s probability data also doesn’t account for the expected development of a La Niña climate pattern, which could make for a snowier-than-normal winter in some parts of the country.

The timing of the La Niña could make it more likely there will be an inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas Day. Meteorologists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expected the colder, wetter climate pattern to develop late last winter, then said in a mid-November blog that chances are about 57 percent that La Niña will develop yet this year.

“This is late for La Niña to arrive, and it’s very likely to be a weak event at most,” according to NOAA’s ENSO Blog. “However, even a weak event can influence temperature, rain, and snow patterns across the world.”

It’s still early, but an extended December outlook from The Weather Channel and Atmospheric G2 said much of the country will be near or drier than average in December. Forecasters said the month started on a cold note in much of the country, but the last half of the month should be warmer for much of the Lower 48 states.

Christmas Day in the Detroit area is historically cold, with an average high of 34 degrees Fahrenheit and an average low of 22 degrees F. The record low for Christmas in Detroit is 4 degrees F., set in 1983, and the record high is 64 degrees F., set in 1982.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac said in its 2024 white Christmas forecast that chances are slim that most of the country will have snow on the ground on Dec. 25.

Most of Michigan has already seen snow, especially parts of northern and western Michigan, where lake effect snow has dumped more than 4 feet in some places. But in true Michigan fashion, highs are expected to reach the 50s with rain chances early next week.