How A La Niña Winter Could Affect MI Home Heating Bills

MICHIGAN — Heating costs in Michigan and most of the rest of the country should be about the same as last year as lower energy prices mostly offset colder weather associated with a La Niña climate pattern, the government said in a recent 2024-25 winter fuels outlook.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast, heating costs in Michigan and the Midwest are expected to be:

• Natural gas: $587 base case, up 11 percent
• Electricity: $1,201 base case, up 6 percent
• Propane: $1,228 base case, up 2 percent
• Heating oil: $1,410 base case, down 5 percent

That’s assuming the forecast for La Niña winter to develop plays out. An updated winter outlook last week from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calls slightly warmer in the eastern of Michigan, while the western half will see normal temperatures.

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While lower prices and colder weather may combine for relatively little change in home heating costs in most of the country, one exception is the Midwest, where last winter was very mild. With a more seasonal winter expected this year, home heating costs could rise between 2 percent and 11 percent, depending on the energy source.

The southern U.S. is another exception. Winter in that part of the country is expected to be mild and heating costs could be lower than last winter, according to the forecast.

The price of crude is a wild card. Rising tensions in the Middle East raise “the possibility of oil supply disruption and future crude oil price increases,” the EIA said.