Can Michigan Still Make The Playoff Even With A Loss To Ohio State?

MICHIGAN — For the first time since 2006, both Michigan and Ohio State enter "The Game" undefeated with eyes on college football's national championship. The big game kicks-off Saturday in Columbus at noon on Fox.

The winner will represent the eastern division in the Big Ten Championship Game, and will be heavy favorites to win the game and earn a spot in the four-team college football playoff.

But here's where things get tricky - can both Wolverines and Buckeyes earn a playoff spot if they play a close game? Let's examine the many scenarios college football officials will look at if that happens.

Strength of Schedule

The college football committee strongly considers conference champions in determining teams for the playoff. That's why the winner of the Big Ten is almost certain to make the playoff this year.

Although Michigan and Ohio State played a similar conference schedule (both earning victories over Michigan State, Iowa and Penn State), the Buckeyes have a stronger non-conference win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

That Buckeye win could play a large factor in Ohio State's eligibility for an at-large bid, especially if Notre Dame defeats the USC Trojans in Los Angeles on Saturday night. Michigan, on the other hand, lacks that strong non-conference win and that could significantly weaken their position for an at-large bid.

Matchups

For Michigan or Ohio State to make the playoff in a losing effort, they're also going to need some help around college football. While the Georgia Bulldogs are almost a lock for the playoff, the TCU Horned Frogs, USC Trojans and the LSU Tigers are vulnerable.

If TCU, USC or LSU lose any of their remaining games, that's a starting point for the Wolverines and Buckeyes to make a playoff case with a loss. A second loss for USC and LSU will most certainly knock them out of playoff contention. TCU is more interesting because it would be their first loss, and they could still win the Big 12.

But while LSU could make strong strength of schedule arguments against Michigan and Ohio State, USC and TCU probably can't, as the Big 12 and Pac 10 conferences are similar to the Big Ten. Moreover, a LSU victory over Georgia would be the worst case scenario for the Wolverines or Buckeyes in a losing effort, considering how string the SEC is.

Heisman Trophy/Talent

While the college football committee presumably does their best to be fair in selecting the four-teams to the playoff, officials also consider matchups and talent. Although the Heisman front-runner is probably USC quarterback Caleb Williams, Wolverines running back Blake Corum and Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud are expected to be finalists too.

The college football committee almost certainly considers college football's most prestigious award in factoring their decision in selecting the four teams. Both the Wolverines and Buckeyes can make strong arguments in that regard to make the playoff after a Saturday loss.

However, that argument can also backfire on the Wolverines or Buckeyes if Williams leads USC past Notre Dame and wins the PAC 10 Championship game. The same could be said for Max Duggan and TCU, if Duggan leads TCU to a perfect season. Overall, the SEC by far has the most talent in college football. That's why Georgia is a lock for the playoff and LSU gets in with a win over Georgia, despite two losses.

The best chance for Michigan to make the playoff is to beat Ohio State in Columbus and then win the Big Ten Championship game the following Saturday in Indianapolis. If the Wolverines lose, they need a lot of help, and even if they get it, their argument still isn't very strong.

Only the SEC has sent two teams to the playoff in the same year, and the Big Ten's chances of getting the Buckeyes and Wolverines in don't look good. USC, TCU and LSU would all have to lose, and a one-loss TCU team still stacks up well against a one-loss Wolverine or Buckeye team, especially if TCU wins the BIG 12.