PurplePTSD: The Great Eight Debate: Conclusion

Press release from the PurplePTSD:

K. Joudry

2022-01-31

Last week, I published a piece with arguments in favor of seeing wins as both a QB and team stat. Warren Ludford from Daily Norseman published a piece over on DN taking the opposite position.

Let me begin with a brief few words about Mr. Ludford’s piece. He does a good job of looking to all kinds of past and present QBs to complicate the insistence that wins are indeed a QB stat. One of the most persuasive examples, at least to my mind, is Matthew Stafford. At worst, Stafford is an above average QB, and yet his career record is below average. Take a look at how Mr. Ludford phrases it:

My response here would be to reiterate that wins are a flawed, incomplete stat. In an evaluation of Stafford’s career, we do need to consider the broader context. Playing for the Lions tends to sink one’s chances at a strong winning percentage. There’s no way Stafford has more of an impact than the other 52 players combined (which is to say nothing of coaching, the front office, etc.).

If we can conclude that QB is the most important position, though, then perhaps it still makes some sense to consider that W/L record as part of the overall assessment of Stafford’s career. In a weird way, we may even look at that .451 win percentage as further evidence of wins as a QB stat. I mean, the Lions have been awful for a long time. It’s remarkable that the number isn’t far worse than it is, suggesting a certain QB may have really buoyed their overall record for a long while.

Therein lies the key: if QB is indeed the most important position in football, then wins as a QB stat has a chance at being viable. Heavy is the head, Billy Shakespeare writes, that wears the crown. In football, the QB wears the crown, a distinction that is often burdensome.

To finish things off, I thought I’d offer a few reflections on Kirk Cousins, someone who inspires a lot of disagreement among Minnesota Vikings fans. For his career, Cousins is 59-59-2. Last season, he was 8-8 (he missed a game due to Covid-19). The most recent season and his career suggest he’s the definition of average. I don’t think this is accurate.

Cousins is an above average QB. In fact, it’d be fair to say he’s a good QB. Not elite, but good. His TD/INT ratio, PFF score, completion %, durability (underrated part of his career; he never gets hurt), and several other traditional & advanced stats suggest he’s a good QB.

That being said, he’s far from the perfect QB, and an argument in favor of him being elite seems misguided. The wins, or lack thereof, help point us toward this reality. Just looking at his TD/INT ratio suggests he’s elite, and yet we know that he isn’t based on four years watching him play for Minnesota. The completion % would similarly suggest he’s elite, though how much of this healthy percentage stems from actually making the wrong throw? A 3-yard pass on 3rd & 10 does little to help one’s team succeed; taking the shot downfield would be far more productive. Partnering his great deep ball with increased aggressiveness would certainly make him a more dangerous QB. It’s an approach that may even lead to more wins.

What I’m trying to suggest is that there’s really no such thing as a stat that has a monopoly on truth. In his introductory press conference, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah stressed the importance of gathering evidence from various avenues to make good decisions. Fans and writers should do likewise.

Looking to wins is merely one way of getting a fuller sense of a QB’s career, one that helps guide us in our evaluations. Use it wisely.

Editor’s Note: We offer an apology for not getting this post published on Friday, as originally planned. We also extend a sincere thanks to Mr. Ludford for participating in this debate.

This press release was produced by the PurplePTSD. The views expressed here are the author’s own.