More Budget Issues Likely for Lakeville Schools as Enrollment Declines

Thanks to an aging of Lakeville's population, the school district is facing years of enrollment decreases, .

Former state demographer Hazel Reinhardt presented her new enrollment projections to on Tuesday night, and the numbers were clear: enrollment in Lakeville's public schools will continue its downward trend over the next five years thanks to an aging population with fewer school-aged children.

While fewer children in Lakeville isn't necessarily a bad thing, it does raise significant challenges for a cash-strapped school district like Lakeville. The state will give Lakeville schools $8,918 in funding for each pupil it teaches in 2012.

Fewer students mean less money, and Reinhardt is projecting a net loss of up to 650 students over the next five years. Generally speaking, Lakeville schools receive $1 million in state funding a year for every 112 students. A decline of 650 students would be more than $5.7 million annually.

 in the 2005-2006 school year when Lakeville's kindergarten classes became smaller than the previous year’s senior class. Since then, the phenomenon has permeated to all grades. The elementary grades are smaller than the middle school grades and the middle school grades are smaller than the high school grades.

There are few ways Lakeville's school can stem the tide, but board members will hold a work session in the near future to talk about ways to attract more students via open enrollment. The board will also be tasked with making some future budget assumptions using the most recent report.

The report did say Lakeville had a high retention rate of the students who live in its borders with 84.8 percent of students attending Lakeville's public schools. The state average is in the mid-70's.

But open enrollment is a problem, Reinhardt said.

Only 2.4 percent of Lakeville students open enroll into the district. The state average is 6.4 percent. Meanwhile, 5.3 percent of school-aged children in Lakeville open enroll out.

"We must continue to work aggressively," Board Member Bob Erickson said of creating a plan to attract students and parents from outside Lakeville.

will have more on the story as it develops.