MN Exports Fell 6% In Q1 As Trade With Canada, Mexico Slipped Sharply

ST. PAUL, MN — Minnesota’s exports declined to $6.3 billion in the first quarter of 2025, down 6 percent compared to the same period last year, according to new data from the Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED).

The drop comes as U.S. exports grew, rising just over 3 percent nationally.

Minnesota was one of 20 states, including eight of 12 in the Midwest, that saw either a decline or no significant growth in exports during the quarter.

While U.S. exports increased overall, the Midwest’s decline reflects its heavier reliance on agricultural goods and trade with Canada and Mexico, two categories that saw sharp downturns.

Midwest States with Declines

1. Iowa: -20%
2. South Dakota: -11%
3. Wisconsin: -7%
4. Missouri: -7%
5. Minnesota: -6%
6. Indiana: -3%
7. Illinois: -2%
8. North Dakota: -1%

Midwest States with Growth

1. Ohio: +2%
2. Michigan: +10%
3. Nebraska: +2%
4. Kansas: +2%

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State officials blamed renewed U.S. trade tensions and tariff uncertainty for the downturn.

"On-again, off-again tariffs issued unilaterally by the Trump Administration continue to cause significant uncertainty and concern for Minnesota companies," said DEED Commissioner Matt Varilek in a statement.

"This quarter, Minnesota saw exports fall to Canada and Mexico, illustrating the risks posed to our state if the federal government wages a trade fight with our two biggest trading partners."

Minnesota's trade momentum slips

Minnesota’s export growth in 2024 had been one of the strongest in the country, fueled by surging shipments of mineral fuels and medical goods, according to state data.

The state’s trade relationship with Canada, key to its export economy, swung dramatically from a 14 percent drop in late 2024 to a more modest 3 percent decline in early 2025.

In 2024, exports to North America grew 13 percent overall, but those gains reversed sharply in the opening months of 2025.

Key takeaways from the Q1 report:

• Top Export Markets Down:
  • Canada: down 3%
  • Mexico: down 16%
  • Asia, EU overall: down 5%
  • Australia: down 31%
  • Exports to the Middle East rose 12%; non-EU Europe was up 17%
• Top Declining Product Categories:
  • Vehicles: down 25%
  • Cereals (corn, wheat): down 63%
  • Optical and medical instruments: down 5%
• Top Growing Categories:
  • Dairy, eggs, honey: up 85% (led by eggs)
  • Oil seeds, misc. grain: up 36% (led by soybeans)
  • Mineral fuels, oils: up 4%
  • Plastics: up 4%

Minnesota Trade Office Executive Director Gabrielle Gerbaud said the state remains committed to supporting exporters amid the volatile trade climate.

"We want to assure Minnesota companies and our global trade partners that Minnesota is open for business," Gerbaud said. "MTO continues to focus on pursuing international growth opportunities and helping Minnesota companies expand their reach."

Find the latest and past trade reports on the DEED website.