States With High Fertility Rates May Get More DOT Cash: Where MN Ranks

ST. PAUL, MN — U.S. states with families producing more babies may soon get more federal transportation funding amid historically low birth rates.

A directive from the U.S. Department of Transportation instructs agencies to consider "the long-term economic health and global competitiveness of the United States" when shaping policies and awarding funds.

Among the factors specifically mentioned are fertility rates and demographic trends, including population growth and migration patterns.

"Federal transportation investments should reflect a forward-looking understanding of the nation’s economic and demographic trajectory," the order states.

This could mark a shift in how federal transportation dollars are distributed, potentially favoring states with higher birth rates.

Minnesota, with a fertility rate of 58.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44, ranks 22nd in the nation, ahead of states like California and New York, but well behind leaders like South Dakota and Utah.

The U.S. fertility rate has been below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman since 2007, when it crashed amid the global economic crisis. It hasn’t even come close since.

In 2021, the rate was just 1.66 births per woman, down from 2.11 in 2007 and a far cry from the postwar baby boom peak of 3.62 in 1957, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That trend, the DOT notes, could have consequences: "Declining birth rates and an aging population may affect the long-term sustainability of communities and infrastructure usage."

The order emphasizes that "sound economic analysis must not only consider present needs, but also future demographic realities."

Critics say the new approach veers into questionable territory, with some calling it ideologically driven and out of touch with real infrastructure needs.

Distributing transportation funding based on marriage and birth rates "is bizarre and a little creepy," said Kevin DeGood, senior director of infrastructure and housing policy at the left-leaning Center for American Progress.

“States and regions with aging populations tend, on average, to have lower birth rates ... Are they somehow not deserving of transportation investment?" he added.

Explore state-by-state fertility data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, including births per 1,000 women ages 15–44 and total number of births:

1. South Dakota – 66.5 (11,201 births)
2. Alaska – 64.9 (9,359 births)
3. Nebraska – 63.6 (24,345 births)
4. North Dakota – 62.0 (9,567 births)
5. Texas – 61.9 (389,741 births)
6. Louisiana – 61.8 (56,479 births)
7. Utah – 61.3 (45,768 births)
8. Kentucky – 61.1 (52,315 births)
9. Oklahoma – 60.4 (48,332 births)
10. Kansas – 60.3 (34,401 births)
11. Arkansas – 60.2 (35,471 births)
12. Iowa – 59.9 (36,506 births)
13. Indiana – 59.7 (79,649 births)
14. Mississippi – 59.7 (34,675 births)
15. Hawaii – 59.3 (15,535 births)
16. Tennessee – 59.3 (82,265 births)
17. Alabama – 58.7 (58,149 births)
18. New Jersey – 58.7 (102,893 births)
19. Idaho – 58.4 (22,391 births)
20. Minnesota – 58.2 (64,015 births)
21. Missouri – 57.7 (68,985 births)
22. North Carolina – 57.6 (121,562 births)
23. Delaware – 57.3 (8,075 births)
24. Ohio – 57.3 (128,231 births)
25. South Carolina – 57.0 (57,820 births)
26. Maryland – 56.9 (68,782 births)
27. Georgia – 56.0 (126,130 births)
28. Florida – 55.6 (224,433 births)
29. Virginia – 55.6 (95,630 births)
30. Wyoming – 55.4 (6,049 births)
31. Arizona – 54.9 (78,547 births)
32. Wisconsin – 54.2 (60,049 births)
33. Michigan – 54.0 (102,321 births)
34. West Virginia – 54.0 (16,929 births)
35. New York – 53.6 (207,774 births)
36. Pennsylvania – 53.3 (130,252 births)
37. Washington – 53.3 (83,333 births)
38. Montana – 53.2 (11,175 births)
39. Nevada – 53.2 (33,193 births)
40. New Mexico – 53.1 (21,614 births)
41. California – 52.8 (419,104 births)
42. Illinois – 51.8 (128,350 births)
43. Colorado – 51.5 (62,383 births)
44. Connecticut – 50.7 (35,332 births)
45. Maine – 49.7 (12,093 births)
46. Massachusetts – 48.7 (68,584 births)
47. New Hampshire – 47.9 (12,077 births)
48. Rhode Island – 47.5 (10,269 births)
49. Oregon – 47.3 (39,493 births)
50. District of Columbia – 44.9 (10,816 births)
51. Vermont – 44.3 (5,316 births)

Reporting from the Associated Press was used in this story