How Likely Are Low-Income St. Louis Kids To Escape Poverty?

ST. LOUIS, MO — A new online tool developed by university researchers and the U.S. Census Bureau shows where in St. Louis children are most — and least — likely to escape poverty or be incarcerated. The federal government, along with scientists from Harvard and Brown universities, unveiled the Opportunity Atlas mapping tool Monday. The researchers found that kids who move early in life to better neighborhoods can see their future paychecks increase by several thousand dollars a year.

In St. Louis, the tool shows that people who grow up in The Ville and Greater Ville neighborhoods — regardless of race and parent income — go on to earn the lowest average incomes (the darker red colors on the map) at $15,000 a year and $17,000 a year, respectively. Meanwhile, people who grew up in St. Louis Hills, Lindenwood Park or Boulevard Heights earn the highest incomes (the dark blues on the map) — $48,000 a year, $46,000 a year and $45,000 a year, respectively.

The richest neighborhoods are more than 90 percent white, while the poorest are more than 90 percent African American, according to Census data.

Nationwide, there are often dramatic differences between neighborhoods within the same community. This contrast is particularly evident in the Bronx, New York, where some neighborhoods appear blood-red when it comes to future household income while others — just a couple miles away — are a deep navy blue.

In the Bronx, there’s a particularly stark difference in outcomes. Black men who grew up in low-income families in the Bedford Park neighborhood went on to earn on average $33,000 a year. But black men who grew up in similar circumstances in nearby Charlotte Gardens — just a 17-minute bicycle ride away — earned on average $16,000 less a year. The two neighborhoods are roughly equal in affordability, to boot.

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In St. Louis, those differences can be dramatic on a block-to-block level. Black men who grew up in low-income families east of North Taylor Avenue and north of West Pine Boulevard in the Central West End went on to earn an average of $27,000 a year. Meanwhile, black men who grew up in similarly poorer families just blocks to the west or south went on to earn dramatically less as adults — an average of just $11,000 a year.

“This example illustrates how kids’ outcomes can differ sharply even between similar neighborhoods,” the developers wrote.

It also illustrates how closely and complexly race and poverty are related, especially in a city as segregated as St. Louis. The same facts carry over into St. Louis County. University City, for example, is a sea of deep red north of Olive Boulevard in the city's third ward. Moving south, expected income can nearly double within just a few blocks. But, for white people living in that ward, the divide is not nearly as stark.

The tool also allows us to see who is most likely to be incarcerated. St. Louis City has an incarceration rate about four times higher than the surrounding county. And in St. Louis, individuals who grew up in The Ville saw the highest incarceration rates — a staggering 10 percent. That number includes all races, incomes and genders. Not surprisingly, St. Louis Hills, Lindenwood Park and Boulevard Heights — the city's richest neighborhoods — saw the lowest incarceration rates of less than 1 percent.

Among the most eye-popping examples nationwide is in Watts, a neighborhood in central Los Angeles where roughly 44 percent of black men who grew up there were incarcerated as of April 1, 2010. By comparison, 6.2 percent of black men who grew up in families with similar incomes in central Compton — just two miles away — were incarcerated.

Kids who move at birth from a below-average to an above-average social mobility neighborhood within the same county would see their lifetime earnings go up by roughly $200,000, the authors wrote. Those children would also be less likely to find themselves behind bars or become a teen parent.

But the authors noted they aren’t implying everyone in these neighborhoods should pack up and head for greener pastures. Stakeholders should use the data to find “opportunity bargains” — affordable places that also lead to good outcomes for kids — and replicate those successes in other communities.

“The lesson to be drawn from these findings is not necessarily that moving is the best solution for increasing upward mobility, but rather that the low rates of upward mobility in some areas can be changed,” the authors wrote.

The Opportunity Atlas was built using anonymous data on 20 million Americans who are currently in their mid-thirties. Ron Jarmin of the Census Bureau said the agency was excited to unveil the social mobility tool because it provides insights at such a local level.

““The Atlas has great social significance because no one has ever had access to social mobility estimates at such a granular level,” Jarmin said in an accompanying case study.

Patch national staffer Dan Hampton contributed to this report.

Photo by J. Ryne Danielson/Patch