Old Farmer's Almanac: Missouri Winter Weather Predictions

MISSOURI – You can look forward to a warm, wet winter in St. Louis this year – at least if you believe predictions from the Old Farmer's Almanac. Kansas City and the western part of the state, meanwhile, will see mild temperatures but can still expect some snow.

The centuries-old forecaster is saying much of the northeast, upper midwest and deep south can expect to avoid a deep freeze and — though it's going to rain — most of that precipitation won't be frozen.

"This winter, we expect to see above-normal temperatures almost everywhere in the United States, except in the Southwest, where we’re predicting a colder-than-normal season," the almanac said. "Our milder-than-normal forecast is due to a decrease in solar activity and the expected arrival of a weak El Niño, which will prevent cold air masses from lingering in the North."

The Old Farmer's Almanac doesn't use satellite data or other methods to make its predictions, but rather a secret mathematical and astronomical formula based on things like the moon's pull on the atmosphere.

Meteorologists say to take the almanac's predictions with a grain of salt. While the almanac paints a convincing story, in the end, that's what it is: a story. Weather is far more probabilistic and complex than the almanac makes out, and even the best mathematical models often get it wrong.

But, for what it's worth, the National Weather Service agrees with much of the Old Farmer's Almanac's conclusions, predicting above normal temperatures for much of the country in its seasonal outlook published earlier this month.

"The temperature and precipitation outlooks are consistent with the elevated probability of El Nino development and its impacts, with adjustments related to model forecasts and decadal timescale climate trends," the weather service said.

So, yeah, basically what the Old Farmer's Almanac said, with some bigger words thrown in and a nod to the longterm impacts of a warming planet, i.e., climate change.

Scientists say Arctic sea ice hit an all-time low this year and much of the pole experienced heatwaves unlike anything researchers have seen before, according to a report from The Guardian. On Thursday, The Washington Post, citing a report in the journal Science, said climate change may be accelerating even faster than scientists had expected, which could lead to catastrophic ecological shifts over the coming decades: drought, wildfires and much, much warmer winters.

Patch national reporter Deb Belt contributed to this article.

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