Business & Tech
Electric System Operator Predicts Adequate Winter Supplies
ISO-NE anticipates winter electricity demand to peak at 20,056 megawatts under normal conditions, and at 21,125 MW during extreme weather.
CONCORD, NH — ISO New England, the region’s electric grid operator, anticipates having sufficient electric resources to meet consumer demand this winter.
“We’re well-prepared heading into winter,” said Stephen George, ISO New England’s vice president, System Operations & Market Administration. “Our enhanced forecasts and operating tools give us confidence in the system’s ability to meet electricity demand across New England.”
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ISO-NE anticipates winter electricity demand to peak at 20,056 megawatts under normal weather conditions, and at 21,125 MW during extreme cold weather.
The demand forecasts are similar to last winter’s when demand peaked at 19,607 MW on Jan. 22, 2025.
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ISO New England expects to have 31,041 MW of available electric capacity, including contributions from current generating sources as well as the Vineyard Wind project and increased imported Hydro Quebec energy from the New England Clean Energy Connect transmission line through Maine.
The Maine transmission line capable of transporting 1,200 MW of hydro power to Massachusetts replaced the Northern Pass Transmission Project which was rejected by New Hampshire utility regulators.
Both the Vineyard Wind and the New England Clean Energy Connect projects are expected to be online this winter and are included in ISO-NE’s assessments, company officials said.
ISO New England uses a number of forecasts and analyses to project winter weather conditions, the expected demand for electricity, and the available supply.
This season marks the first time ISO-NE used the Probabilistic Energy Adequacy Tool (PEAT) to assess energy shortfall risk against the recently defined Regional Energy Shortfall Threshold (REST).
PEAT is designed to quantify potential energy shortfall risk due to extreme weather events and what actions are to be taken to off-load demand.
No violations of the REST were identified in the forecast modeling, officials said, with 18 hours of energy disruption over a 90-day period the threshold.
Based on this analysis, ISO-NE projects the region is well-positioned going into the winter season, according to officials, as no violations of the REST were identified in the forecast modeling for this winter.
In order to remain flexible and ensure reliability throughout winter, each week, ISO-NE publishes a 21-day forecast that incorporates a variety of factors to provide information about possible energy supply constraints.
The early warning allows power generators to reschedule planned maintenance or arrange for additional fuel deliveries.
Should unexpected conditions arise, such as a sudden loss of generation or transmission issues, system operators in ISO New England’s control room have tools to balance the system to keep it operating. These tools include requesting maintenance be deferred, increasing imported energy, or calling for reserve resources to begin generating power.
The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration is forecasting slightly warmer than average temperatures in southern New England this winter, near-average temperatures in the rest of New England, and near-average snowfall for all New England.
Last winter’s demand peaked at 19,607 MW on Jan. 22, 2025.
The all-time winter peak demand is 22,818 MW, set on Jan. 15, 2004, during a prolonged cold snap.
All-time peak demand is 28,130 MW, on Aug. 2, 2006, during a prolonged heat-wave.
Garry Rayno may be reached at garry.rayno@yahoo.com.
This article first appeared on InDepthNH.org and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.
