NH Democratic Wave Likely Election Day: Poll

CONCORD, NH -- A Democratic wave appears poised to wash over New Hampshire on Election Day Tuesday, according to a new University of New Hampshire election poll released Sunday. The latest Granite State poll showed Democrats leading both congressional races while the governor's race was too close to call. Democrat Molly Kelly saw a last-minute surge of support against incumbent Republican Governor Chris Sununu and the pair were tied at 46 percent, according to the poll. Libertarian Jilletta Jarvis was at 2 percent and could play a spoiler role.

Last month, Sununu was leading Kelly 50 percent to 39 percent, according to a previous Granite State Poll.

Sunday's poll also found Democrats lead both congressional races and are likely to chip away at Republican control of the New Hampshire House, Senate and Executive Council.

"This election looks to be a good year for Democrats," poll author and UNH Survey Center Director Andrew Smith said in a statement. "Governor Sununu's popularity may allow him to buck this trend and secure reelection, but we probably won't know until the last ballots are counted as the race for Governor looks very close."

Smith added, "The race between Sununu and Kelly closely resembles the 2014 gubernatorial election between Maggie Hassan and her Republican challenger Walt Harvenstein, where Hassan's lead declined over time but she still secured another term in a close election."

Democrat Chris Pappas led Republican Eddie Edwards, 53 percent to 40 percent, in the First District, while Democrat Ann Kuster led Republican Steve Negron, 56 percent to 35 percent, in the Second District, the poll found.

Republicans currently hold substantial majorities in both House and Senate. In the House, the GOP holds a 210-167 majority, while in the Senate it holds a 14-10 majority. The poll found 50 percent of likely voters plan to vote for Democrats in the House while 40 percent support Republicans. For Senate races, 51 percent plan to vote for Democrats, compared to 39 percent for Republicans, the poll found.

The poll was based on 630 phone interviews with likely voters conducted November 1 through November 4.

Voter turnout Tuesday is expected to set a record for a midterm election in New Hampshire. Secretary of State Bill Gardner predicted more than 500,000 voters will cast ballots, which would be a first for a midterm in the Granite State.

New Hampshire Midterm Election 2018

• NH Governor Race Profile: Molly Kelly Vs. Chris Sununu
• Historic NH Congress Race: Eddie Edwards Vs. Chris Pappas
• Steve Negron Vs. Ann Kuster For Congress In NH's Second District

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