Analysis: The Good News/Bad News Of Trump's Leavitt Endorsement

By Michael Graham, NH Journal

As the Republican primary raged in the First Congressional District over the summer, rumors abounded that Karoline Leavitt was desperately trying to connect with Mar-A-Lago to get former President Donald Trump’s endorsement.

It never came, but the 25-year-old former Trump staffer rolled onto victory without it. And it’s safe to say that if she had gotten the Donald’s nod in July or August, Leavitt would have promptly put the news up on TV.

What does it say about Leavitt’s campaign that she was endorsed by Trump last Saturday… and never mentioned it?

What does it say about Pappas’ campaign that he didn’t, either?

The endorsement came via Truth Social, Trump’s troubled attempt at creating a social media platform.

Trump posted: “Karoline Leavitt is fantastic. Vote for her and win. She has my Complete and Total Endorsement!” The post also included a link to a Fox News report on Leavitt’s candidacy.

It’s a sign of how limited Truth Social’s reach is that nobody in the media knew about the endorsement until Monday. And it’s a testament to how problematic Trump’s political standing is that, now that it’s public, the Leavitt campaign still doesn’t want to talk about it.

Instead of TV ads or digital banners, Leavitt released a modest statement:

“Never Trumpers, Forever Trumpers, Independents, and common sense Democrats are supporting our campaign because they know America cannot withstand another two years of Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and Chris Pappas’ policies,” Leavitt said. “My campaign has been and always will be about ending inflation, unleashing America’s energy independence again to bring down costs, securing our border, and ensuring law and order, and I invite anyone who is ready to get our country back on track to join our team!”

No mention of President Trump himself.

So the endorsement doesn’t appear to be good news. But is it bad news? Is it an opportunity for Pappas to tag her as an “Ultra MAGA” Trumper?

If so, he’s not taking it. His campaign also sat on the news, not releasing a tweet after the news broke.

“Leavitt said she ‘held the line on January 6th’ for Trump as he cheered the violent attack at our Capitol,” Pappas tweeted. “This endorsement is today’s reminder that she’s blindly loyal to him and can’t cite a single issue where she breaks with Trump.”

(An aside: the “held the line on January 6th for Trump” is entirely false. Leavitt’s statement, linked here, is about her old boss Rep. Elise Stefanik objecting to Congress accepting the 2020 presidential electors. It doesn’t reference Leavitt at all and has nothing to do with the January 6th attack on the Capitol.)

Will there be Pappas campaign TV ads touting Trump’s endorsement and tying Karoline even more closely to the former president? Don’t bet on it.

One reason is that Leavitt has firmly embraced her MAGA credentials already by continuing to say the 2020 election was stolen from former President Trump. Who needs a TV ad?

Another is that Pappas’ campaign professionals are probably smart enough to know that “Trump voters” and the “GOP base” aren’t the same people. The GOP base loves Trump, and they’re happy to vote for him and the candidates he supports. The “show up every election” Republicans were Republicans before Trump came down the escalator, and he persuaded them to back him in 2016.

Trump voters, on the other hand, aren’t regular voters except when Trump is on the ballot. They rarely voted before 2016 and if he retires from politics they’re unlikely to vote often in the future. These are the new voters he brought to the GOP, the ones who screwed up the polls in 2016 and 2020, when Trump outperformed estimates.

How does it help Pappas to remind these low-motivation voters that Trump’s a big fan of Leavitt? The people who hate Trump are already voting Democrat. But the people who love him might be motivated to show up.

And then there’s this from the new Emerson College poll released Monday night:

“In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, 44 percent would support Biden and 43 percent Trump.”

So Trump and Biden are essentially tied in New Hampshire. Not much of a net gain for Pappas.

Speaking of which, when asked by WMUR’s Adam Sexton if he would campaign with President Biden, the most Pappas would commit to is, “I’d be happy to show him around the state.”

If Joe Biden endorsed Pappas tomorrow, would he put that in a TV ad?

This story was originally published by the NH Journal, an online news publication dedicated to providing fair, unbiased reporting on, and analysis of, political news of interest to New Hampshire. For more stories from the NH Journal, visit NHJournal.com.