Jersey Shore Surf Conditions To Worsen As Lee Approaches: Forecasters

NEW JERSEY - Difficult surf and rip currents at the Jersey Shore will turn treacherous early next week and will only get worse as Hurricane Lee approaches the East Coast, forecasters said.

The dangerous surf and rip currents are expected to begin Sunday and Monday, the National Hurricane Center said Saturday. As of 5 a.m., Lee is a category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of around 115 mph last seen spinning around 385 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands.

The Garden State largely avoided Hurricane Idalia impacts over Labor Day weekend, save for dangerous rip currents that led to at least two drownings and multiple rescues in Cape May, Belmar and Seaside Park.

Lee is slated to pass north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico into early next week before turning north toward the East Coast, the weather service said.

The storm has dwindled in intensity as it was declared a category 5 storm Thursday with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph. Lee is expected to significantly decrease in forward speed before it nears the mainland U.S., largely leaving the projected path and impacts of Lee in the air, forecasters said.

That’s not to say the storm won’t still be fierce approaching the new week:

“Confidence in the intensity forecast is low at the moment, although it is likely that Lee will remain a dangerous hurricane for at least the next 5 days,” the National Hurricane Center said Friday.

Some models show the storm barreling toward Newfoundland in Canada, though AccuWeather forecasters say several key factors will play a role in Lee’s path towards - or away from - the Garden State, including wind direction and jet stream dips, as well as the timing of when Lee spins out to the north.

“It is way too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic,” forecasters said. “Regardless, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday and Monday.”

Heavy rain, gusty winds, beach erosion, strong waves, heavy seas and storm surge won’t be out of the question for the region, AccuWeather said. Coastal flooding at high tide may also be in the cards.

"Right now, the area in the United States that really needs to pay attention includes locations from the upper part of the mid-Atlantic coast to New England," AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

Higher-than-normal ocean surface temperatures could also increase the likelihood of hurricanes this season, New Jersey State Climatologist David Robinson told NorthJersey.com.

Lee is the 12th storm to form in the Atlantic in 2023, according to The New York Times. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a "near-normal" number of named storms this year - somewhere between 12 and 17, the outlet reported. The number, however, was revised upward last month to 14 to 21 storms.