La Niña Has Arrived In NJ: What Forecasters Are Saying It Means

La Niña weather conditions have arrived in New Jersey and are likely to persist through early winter, according to an advisory from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center issued earlier this month.

The advisory comes after a La Niña watch was issued by NOAA in early September, with maps showing a 33-40 percent chance of above-normal temperatures in New Jersey for the winter.

In their Oct. 9 advisory, NOAA said La Niña conditions are favored to persist through February 2026 before transitioning to neutral conditions between the January-March timeframe.

“At this time, La Niña is expected to remain weak,” NOAA said. “A weak La Niña would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance.”

According to AccuWeather, La Niña is a recurring climate pattern that develops when ocean water near the equator in the central and eastern Pacific becomes cooler than the historical average.

These conditions often impact where cold air, snow and rain are likely to occur in the U.S.

When La Niña conditions are present, they must persist for five consecutive three-month periods for La Niña to be official, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said.

Though La Niña is predicted to continue through early winter and affect snow, rain and temperature trends across the country, Pastelok also said that this year’s La Niña appears to be weak, which leaves room for other oceanic factors to influence the forecast, such as a marine heat wave in the northern Pacific Ocean.

"These waters off the West Coast and extending farther out are very, very important going into our [winter] forecast this year," Pastelok said.

When it comes to New Jersey’s winter snowfall predictions, AccuWeather forecasts show that while snow is expected in the Garden State, overall snowfall totals may still finish below the historical average, as some storms later in the season could bring a mix of rain and snow.

• Read More: New Winter Snowfall Predictions Issued For NJ

Once La Niña conditions phase out, NOAA said the weather is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral in January-March, which occurs when Pacific sea surface temperatures are close to average.

La Niña is the counterpart to El Niño, which occurs when there are above-average sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

Related

• La Niña Watch Issued: What It Could Mean For NJ's Winter
• New Winter Snowfall Predictions Issued For NJ