New Poll Shows Another Dramatic Shift In NJ Governor’s Race

The New Jersey governor's race for 2025 took another turn this week with the latest polls showing Mikie Sherrill in the lead.

Sherrill, a former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot currently serving as a congress member, is running for governor as a Democrat in New Jersey. She is facing a challenge from Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman who has gotten an endorsement from President Donald Trump.

While polls can't predict the outcome of the November general election, they can shine some insight into where voters are leaning.

On Tuesday, Fox News released its own poll of New Jersey voters that found Sherrill was ahead of Ciattarelli by 8 percentage points among likely voters (50 to 42 percent) and 7 points among the larger sample of registered voters (48 to 41 percent) – both lead just outside the margin of sampling error.

Taking a deeper dive into the poll shows Black and Hispanic voters, those with a college degree and voters under age 45 are Sherrill's biggest supporters

"There is a 15-point gender gap with women preferring Sherrill by 14 points and men favoring Ciattarelli by 1," according to Fox News.

For Ciattarelli, MAGA supporters, White Catholics, White men without a college degree and voters ages 45-54 are his biggest supporters.

Additionally, about 90 percent of Republicans support Ciattarelli while 89 percent of Democrats support Sherrill.

Another poll released by Quantus Insights on Tuesday also shows Sherill with a slight lead over Ciattarelli 48.1 percent to 45.8 percent, among likely voters. This is a 2.3-point margin, which is down from 10 points earlier from their Labor Day poll.

The demographics in Quantus Insights' poll show a similar trend to Fox News' poll.

Men, White and Asian, Non-college voters, and Republican are Cittarelli's biggest supporters. While Women, Black and Hispanic, College-educated voters, and Democrats favor Sherrill.

"Older voters (45–64) lean slightly GOP, but Sherrill holds her own across all age brackets — even the youngest, where support is solid, but not overwhelming," according to Quantus Insights.

Sherill leads in the following age brackets: ages 18 to 29 with 52 percent over Ciattarelli with 45 percent; ages 30 to 44 Sherrill with 50percent over Ciattarelli with 42 percent; and 65+ Sherrill with 50 percent over Ciattarelli with 43 percent.

Cittarelli leads in the 45 to 64 age bracket with 50 percent over Sherrill with 44 percent.

Looking at education, Sherrill leads with 52 percent of college-educated voters over Ciattarelli with 41 percent. On the flip side, Cittarelli leads with non-college voters with 50 percent over Sherrill with 45 percent.

Military Records Leak

A new twist in the increasingly heated race emerged on Sept. 25, when CBS News reported that a mostly unredacted version of Sherrill's military records — including her Social Security number and addresses for her family — was released to an ally of Ciattarelli through a Freedom of Information Act request.

The National Personnel Records Center said the unredacted record should not have been released, adding that it wasn’t known why the technician didn’t follow standard operating procedures. The center said it has contacted Sherrill's congressional office to apologize.

The Ciattarelli campaign has claimed the improper disclosure was the National Archives’ fault, which was given in response to a “perfectly legal FOIA request.”
Sherrill has argued otherwise.

“This is an illegal and dangerous weaponization of the federal government,” she commented in the wake of this week’s announcement.

See Related:

• Sherrill, Ciattarelli: Here’s Why I Should Be NJ Governor (In 500 Words)
• 5 Takeaways From First New Jersey Governor Debate