Hurricane Likely To Form Later This Week: What It Means For NJ

A tropical rainstorm in the Atlantic Ocean has formed into Tropical Storm Erin, and will likely become a hurricane later in the week, forecasters predict. Here's how it could impact the Garden State.

Erin was officially designated a tropical storm Monday and is expected to intensify into a hurricane, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season's first, this week, according to the National Hurricane Center at NOAA. Models show the storm further intensifying into a major hurricane shortly after.

“Erin will enter an area with conducive atmospheric conditions that will allow it to quickly strengthen north of the Lesser Antilles. This storm will likely intensify into a major hurricane this weekend over an area with exceptionally warm waters and little disruptive wind shear,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

“Water temperatures across much of the Atlantic main development region are plenty warm to support tropical development and even rapid intensification. Temperatures at the surface and hundreds of feet deep are higher than the historical average in many places. We are entering the time of year when ocean temperatures typically reach their warmest point of the year, between mid-August and mid-October.”

Two scenarios are being tracked: in one, the storm tracks away from the U.S. and heads back into sea. In the second, it will head towards the coast.

“If the trough is stronger and faster, it will help steer Erin away from the East Coast and out to sea. This is the scenario we typically see with recurving storms. If the trough is slower, the storm will be able to advance farther westward toward the coast of the Carolinas,” DaSilva said. “People along the East Coast, especially along the Outer Banks and eastern Canada, should monitor forecast updates closely this week.”

It is too early to tell for certain how the storm will play out, but forecasters are leaning towards Erin moving away from the U.S.

In either case, impacts wouldn't hit New Jersey until next week. Even if it tracks away, Erin will still likely create rough surf and rip currents along the Jersey Shore next week.

New Jerseyans should pay attention to the forecast over the next few days as it becomes more concrete.

The Atlantic hurricane season is ramping up this time of year. According to AccuWeather, the average date for the first hurricane is Aug. 11. Two other systems are currently forming in the Atlantic, though they aren't expected to intensify.