Here's How Likely A White Christmas Is For NJ This Year

NEW JERSEY — The probability of a white Christmas is historically between 10 and 25 percent in most of New Jersey, a projection based on three-decade averages in snow accumulation, temperatures and other climatological data.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s white Christmas probability calculations represent exact science. But they don’t always match the reality on the ground, or what current forecasting models suggest for New Jersey.

Historically, most of the state has between a 10 and 25 percent chance of seeing at least an inch of snow on Christmas. The exceptions are in the more mountainous northwest part of the state, which has between a 25 and 40 percent chance; and in southern coastal counties, which have between a 0 and 10 percent chance.

AccuWeather gave New Jersey a "low" chance of seeing a white Christmas this year in its updated forecast. This is due to warmer temperatures in the forecast for late December, as a milder Pacific air mass is expected to take over and even areas that have snow on the ground could see it melt away before Christmas, the private weather company said.

The probability of a white Christmas is between 5 percent and 25 percent in much of New Jersey, according to AccuWeather, which also uses NOAA historical data in its forecast.

NOAA’s probability data also doesn’t account for the expected development of a La Niña climate pattern, which could make for a snowier-than-normal winter in some parts of the country.

The timing of the La Niña could make it more likely there will be an inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas Day. Meteorologists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expected the colder, wetter climate pattern to develop late last winter, then said in a mid-November blog that chances are about 57 percent that La Niña will develop yet this year.

“This is late for La Niña to arrive, and it’s very likely to be a weak event at most,” according to NOAA’s ENSO Blog. “However, even a weak event can influence temperature, rain, and snow patterns across the world.”

An extended December outlook from The Weather Channel and Atmospheric G2 said much of the country will be near or drier than average in December. Forecasters said the month started on a cold note in much of the country, but the last half of the month should be warmer for much of the Lower 48 states. That is not the case in the Garden State, where temperatures are predicted to be chillier than average.

Christmas Day in New Jersey is historically chilly, with an average high of 44 degrees Fahrenheit and an average low of 22 degrees F. The record high for Christmas in New Jersey is 68 degrees F. and the record low is -1 degrees F., according to WeatherUnderground.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac said in its 2024 white Christmas forecast that chances are slim that most of the country will have snow on the ground on Dec. 25.

Patch's national desk contributed to this report.