Raritan Bay High-Tide Flooding Will Occur More Frequently, Report Says

HIGHLANDS, NJ — A new report released Tuesday from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that high-tide flooding will only occur more frequently in the next year and years to come.

High-tide flooding, often referred to as “king tides" or “sunny day” flooding, is a familiar site along the Jersey Shore, especially in towns facing Raritan Bay such as Keyport, Keansburg and Matawan, and along New Jersey barrier islands like Long Beach Island.

NOAA is the federal agency that monitors the atmosphere and oceans. In their report, they used the Sandy Hook peninsula as a pinpoint spot from where they predict flooding will get worse, due to "years of rising sea levels," said NOAA.

There is flooding about 10-15 times a year in the Sandy Hook peninsula area and NOAA predicts that will increase to between 80 to 110 high-tide flood days per year by 2050. NOAA predicts six to 11 high-tide flood events will occur in the Northeast between the fall of 2022 and spring of 2023, NOAA predicted.

Actually, 2022/23 will not be a bad year for New Jersey coastal flooding because of La Niña, said NOAA scientists.

You can read their report here: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa....

NOAA released their report in August 2022 through May 2023, or what they define as a "meteorological year." That is because it includes fall, winter and spring, the three seasons where the most intense storms occur.

High Tide Flooding (HTF) is defined as when tides reach anywhere from 1.75 to 2 feet above the daily average high tide and start spilling onto streets or bubbling up from storm drains.

High-tide flooding is something anyone from Keyport to Highlands has witnessed, as residents often post photos of low-lying streets flooded after a storm.

"As sea level rise continues, damaging floods that happened decades ago only during a storm now happen more regularly, like during a full-moon or with a change in prevailing winds or currents," said NOAA. "Coastal communities across the U.S. will continue to experience more frequent high-tide flooding, forcing residents and visitors to deal with flooded shorelines, streets and basements."

More from their report:

• By 2050, high tide flooding on a national scale is expected to be between about 45 - 70 days/year on average. These long-term projections are based on the range of expected relative sea level rise by 2050 using information from the 2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report.
• Coastal flood warnings for significant risks to life and property, will become much more commonplace as we approach mid-century.
• The Northeast is one of the areas most impacted by high tide flooding in the U.S. This year’s outlook predicts a fewer number of high tide flooding days due to Earth’s place at the furthest proximity from the moon in a Perigean cycle. However, when comparing this year’s projections to the average number of high tide flooding days in the year 2000, the Northeast has seen a nearly 200% increase in high-tide flooding days.
• The frequency of high tide flooding across the country continues to increase.
• This year, eastern U.S. and Gulf state communities will continue to experience an over 150% increase in HTF compared to the year 2000, limited only by periodic weather and climate events.