Reports Show Where NJ Succeeds And Lags In Containing Coronavirus

NEW JERSEY – New Jersey has been held up as a model for states that have succeeded in containing the coronavirus, even as it's dealt with several local outbreaks that have concerned the Murphy administration.

Reports from Johns Hopkins University of Medicine and the state Department of Health, however, show that New Jersey has both succeeded and lagged in areas that scientists and researchers have used to track each state's progress in dealing with the outbreak (see the reasons below).

Indeed, the ups and downs of the outbreak have perhaps caused Gov. Phil Murphy to take a more cautious approach in reopening the state. He's hinted strongly at reopening gyms and indoor dining very soon, for example, but he's stopped short of pulling the trigger whenever numbers tick up. Read more: Gov. Murphy Nixes NJ Regional Reopen, Gym, Indoor Dining Restart

No report has tracked the roller-coaster ride better than New Jersey's own COVID-19 Information Hub, which this weekend indicated that the Garden State is, perhaps, back on track toward containing the virus.

The rate of transmission has dipped back below 1.0, falling from a level that's considered too high and would indicate that the disease is community-spread. It would also suggest that every person with coronavirus is spreading it to at least one other person.

The Johns Hopkins University of Medicine also provides a daily report that lays out the key metrics for understanding the reach and severity of COVID-19 in a given area, including: the number of new daily cases, tests per 100,000 people (testing rate) and percentage of tests that are positive (positivity rate).

In that report, New Jersey is trending in the right direction in terms of keeping its percentage of positive tests low. But new cases have also fluctuated lately and New Jersey has, at times, struggled to get a quicker response on testing.

Yet another report, from the group Covid Act Now, has reassigned New Jersey to "slow disease growth," saying COVID-19 in New Jersey is spreading in a slow and controlled fashion, though the Garden State's coronavirus preparedness meets international standards. Read more: Slow Coronavirus Growth In NJ As 3 Counties Risk Outbreak: Study

Here is what these reports are saying:

Transmission rate

Perhaps no indicator has given Murphy fits that the transmission rate, which uses complex scientific formula to show whether New Jersey is containing the virus.

Following the shutdown of the state's economy, the number dipped all the way down 0.70 in June, according to state statistics. But, perhaps not coincidentally, the number gradually rose while Murphy started to reopen, jumping to as high as 1.14 earlier this month.

Murphy has pointed to indoor parties and a lack of social distancing at the Jersey Shore as the probable reasons for why New Jersey has not been able to keep the transmission rate consistently lower than 1.0. Read more: 2 Arrests, Cop Hurt After 400 Show Up To NJ House Party: PD

Here is a graphic that shows the roller coaster ride leading up to Wednesday:

This weekend, however, New Jersey got a bit of good news from the COVID-19 Information Hub: The transmission rate dipped back below 0.99.

Murphy has cited the data point as an important factor in determining whether to reopen more of the state's economy, such as indoor dining.

Hospitalizations

New Jersey's hospitalization number dipped all the way down to 376 on Saturday, four months after hitting a high of 8,013. The number is the lowest since March 24th.

Dipping below 400 for the first time since March gave state officials cause to celebrate.

"It’s incredible what we’ve achieved by pulling together as one New Jersey family, but we’re not over the finish line yet," Murphy said. "Keep it up."

There have been few ups and downs in the hospitalization numbers, which the state says has been trending sharply downward for months.

Here is the graphic from Friday:

New cases

New cases have risen slightly lately, with Johns Hopkins reporting that New Jersey has had some recent upticks in its rolling three-day average of cases.

The number is far down from April when New Jersey was averaging nearly 4,000 a day. On Friday, the rolling average was 306.

But when indoor parties and lack of social distancing at New Jersey night clubs began to make news earlier this month, New Jersey's rolling daily case average nearly doubled, hitting 516 on Aug. 13.

It was around that time that Murphy did one of the few reversals he's made over the course of the crisis, shrinking the number of people allowed indoors from 100 to 25 and 25 percent capacity per room. Read more: NJ Reverses Indoor Gathering Rules As Transmission Rate Rises

Positivity rate

This is another indicator where New Jersey has been consistently trending in the right direction.

Johns Hopkins says the state's percentage of positive cases is at 1.0, which is among the lowest in the county. New Jersey was not as generous to itself this week, saying the number is 1.42 percent.

For comparison's sake, Mississippi is at 39.8 percent and Florida is at 14 percent.

Testing

When the out-of-state cases started to rise sharply beginning in June, New Jersey started to find itself struggling in getting the right number of tests and getting results quickly.

The average return on a test went from three to five days to almost seven days. Now, that number appears to have reversed to its earlier point.

Johns Hopkins says New Jersey has fluctuated recently in new tests per 1,000 people, declining from 3.4 on Aug. 15 to 2.9 on Aug. 20.