Health & Fitness
Slow Coronavirus Growth In NJ As 3 Counties Risk Outbreak: Study
NJ is no longer on track to contain COVID-19, researchers and epidemiologists say. Here's where the state is having issues, and why.
NEW JERSEY — New Jersey is no longer on track to contain the coronavirus now that three counties are "at risk" of having another coronavirus outbreak, according to a study from researchers and epidemiologists.
Indeed, a number of counties have seen their numbers rise in recent weeks (see list below).
The group, Covid Act Now, has reassigned New Jersey to "slow disease growth," saying COVID-19 in New Jersey is spreading in a slow and controlled fashion, though the Garden State’s coronavirus preparedness meets international standards.
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New Jersey's daily case numbers have also fallen dramatically since April, though there has been a slight uptick lately (see daily case numbers below).
Bergen, Hudson and Passaic counties, where the coronavirus outbreak originated in New Jersey and infected tens of thousands of people, are now "at risk" of an outbreak. Here's why:
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- Daily new cases: The numbers show that the counties have not contained the coronavirus even though their numbers are still low. Covid Act Now, however, believes each county should have no more than 1 new case per 100,000, and all three have at least 4.8.
- Infection rates: All three counties have infection rates over 1.14. 1.0 is considered too high; meaning, every person with coronavirus is infecting at least one other person.
Here are the counties and where they are ranked in terms of infection rates, according to Covid Act Now:
- Passaic 1.21
- Hudson 1.18
- Bergen 1.14
- Gloucester 1.06
- Union 1.04
- Middlesex 1.01
- Essex 1.0
- Camden 0.99
- Salem 0.96
- Morris 0.93
- Cumberland 0.92
- Monmouth 0.92
- Somerset 0.90
- Burlington 0.89
- Warren 0.86
- Atlantic 0.85
- Ocean 0.85
- Hunterdon 0.83
- Cape May 0.79
- Sussex 0.79
- Mercer 0.78
In July, Gov. Phil Murphy had touted the state as one of only three in the nation that looked likely to get the virus under control as it went from being, along with New York, the world's COVID-19 epicenter to having among the lowest daily diagnoses in the nation.
Indeed, no state is currently considered on track to contain the coronavirus. Vermont was the only one, but the researchers removed the state from the list last week.
New Jersey initially had been on the list of "green" states in late June but was removed by early July when the state's rate of transmission rose to 1.1.
The state's rate then dipped 0.84 since the New Jersey issued a public mask order and the dealt with a few hot spots in Manasquan, Hoboken and Westfield, among other places. By mid-June, New Jersey was back in the "green."
Since then, crowded outdoor bars and parties have caught Murphy's attention, and the police even busted one with 700 people in Jackson. Covid Act Now says New Jersey's transmission rate is back up to 1.04. Read more: 3 Charged After Party At Airbnb Rental Draws 700: Jackson Police
The number does conflict slightly with the transmission number released by the state, which was 0.99 on Sunday. Read more: NJ Coronavirus, Reopen Updates: Here's What You Need To Know
Daily cases also have risen slightly since hitting a low of 144 on July 19. On Sunday, 329 new cases were reported. Still, that's a more than 90 percent drop from the highest daily number of 4,427 on April 23.
Deaths also have dropped dramatically: On Sunday, there were four more fatalities reported, a 99 percent drop from April 30, when there were 460.
Murphy said the tough measures New Jersey has taken have allowed for a series of reopenings, some of which — such as pool reopenings and organized sports — took place recently. He's also pulled back on some reopenings, such as indoor dining. Read more: Gov. Murphy: 'Hard Dates' In NJ Coronavirus Reopening Blueprint
Murphy, however, has signaled that he may be ready to reconsider and reopen indoor dining. Read more: Gov. Murphy Looks To Reopen Gyms, Indoor Dining In NJ
Here are the daily case numbers going back to the beginning of the outbreak:
- August 16: 329
- August 15: 464
- August 14: 585
- August 13: 699
- August 12: 484
- August 11: 498
- August 10: 258
- August 9: 378
- August 8: 379
- August 7: 384
- August 6: 411
- August 5: 378
- August 4: 416
- August 3: 264
- August 2: 331
- August 1: 393
- July 31: 699
- July 30: 261
- July 29: 489
- July 28: 565
- July 27: 446
- July 26: 512
- July 25: 547
- July 24: 488
- July 23: 344
- July 22: 390
- July 21: 424
- July 20: 177
- July 19: 144
- July 18: 309
- July 17: 202
- July 16: 254
- July 15: 396
- July 14: 423
- July 13: 231
- July 12: 349
- July 11: 438
- July 10: 367
- July 9: 354
- July 8: 335
- July 7: 310
- July 6: 216
- July 5: 398
- July 4: 303
- July 3: 386
- July 2: 539
- July 1: 423
- June 30: 461
- June 29: 156
- June 28: 354
- June 27: 347
- June 26: 524
- June 25: 406
- June 24: 317
- June 23: 382
- June 22: 359
- June 21: 411
- June 20: 446
- June 19: 516
- June 18: 442
- June 17: 330
- June 16: 470
- June 15: 274
- June 14: 305
- June 13: 523
- June 12: 495
- June 11: 539
- June 10: 611
- June 9: 375
- June 8: 356
- June 7: 426
- June 6: 606
- June 5: 864
- June 4: 603
- June 3: 652
- June 2: 708
- June 1: 509
- May 31: 868
- May 30: 910
- May 29: 1,117
- May 28: 1,261
- May 27: 970
- May 26: 703
- May 25: 965
- May 24: 1,065
- May 23: 443
- May 22: 1,394
- May 21: 1,304
- May 20: 1,670
- May 19: 1,055
- May 18: 1,735
- May 17: 1,272
- May 16: 1,239
- May 15: 1,297
- May 14: 1,216
- May 13: 1,028
- May 12: 898
- May 11: 1,453
- May 10: 1,503
- May 9: 1,759
- May 8: 1,985
- May 7: 1,827
- May 6: 1,513
- May 5: 2,494
- May 4: 1,621
- May 3: 3,144
- May 2: 2,912
- May 1: 2,651
- April 30: 2,633
- April 29: 2,481
- April 28: 2,887
- April 27: 2,146
- April 26: 3,730
- April 25: 3,457
- April 24: 3,047
- April 23: 4,427
- April 22: 3,551
- April 21: 3,644
- April 20: 3,528
- April 19: 3,915
- April 18: 3,026
- April 17: 3,250
- April 16: 4,391
- April 15: 2,625
- April 14: 4,049
- April 13: 3,219
- April 12: 3,733
- April 11: 3,599
- April 10: 3,627
- April 9: 3,748
- April 8: 3,088
- April 7: 3,361
- April 6: 3,663
- April 5: 3,482
- April 4: 4,331
- April 3: 4,372
- April 2: 3,489
- April 1: 3,649
- March 31: 2,196
- March 30: 3,347
- March 29: 2,316
- March 28: 2,289
- March 27: 1,982
- March 26: 2,492
- March 25: 736
- March 24: 846
- March 23: 935
- March 22: 590
- March 21: 442
- March 20: 155
- March 19: 318
- March 18: 162
- March 17: 89
- March 16: 80
- March 15: 31
- March 14: 19
- March 13: 21
- March 12: 21
- March 11: 8
- March 10: 4
- March 9: 5
- March 8: 6
- March 7: 1
- March 6: 1
- March 5: 1
- March 4: 1
Here is a look at coronavirus deaths by day:
- August 16: 4
- August 15: 7
- August 14: 10
- August 13: 8
- August 12: 9
- August 11: 14
- August 10: 4
- August 9: 5
- August 8: 9
- August 7: 12
- August 6: 8
- August 5: 8
- August 4: 11
- August 3: 10
- August 2: 6
- August 1: 11
- July 31: 10
- July 30: 16
- July 29: 18
- July 28: 24
- July 27: 17
- July 26: 11
- July 25: 16
- July 24: 36
- July 23: 23
- July 22: 24
- July 21: 21
- July 20: 9
- July 19: 11
- July 18: 16
- July 17: 20
- July 16: 32
- July 15: 27
- July 14: 28
- July 13: 22
- July 12: 16
- July 11: 49
- July 10: 31
- July 9: 28
- July 8: 53
- July 7: 52
- July 6: 20
- July 5: 23
- July 4: 25
- July 3: 58
- July 2: 27
- July 1: 45
- June 30: 47
- June 29: 18
- June 28: 30
- June 27: 36
- June 26: 44
- June 25: 26
- June 24: 48
- June 23: 57
- June 22: 27
- June 21: 17
- June 20: 25
- June 19: 37
- June 18: 38
- June 17: 47
- June 16: 51
- June 15: 52
- June 14: 40
- June 13: 103
- June 12: 48
- June 11: 70
- June 10: 74
- June 9: 91
- June 8: 40
- June 7: 79
- June 6: 60
- June 5: 79
- June 4: 92
- June 3: 112
- June 2: 51
- June 1: 27
- May 31: 66
- May 30: 113
- May 29: 131
- May 28: 66
- May 27: 148
- May 26: 54
- May 25: 16
- May 24: 52
- May 23: 96
- May 22: 146
- May 21: 98
- May 20: 168
- May 19: 162
- May 18: 83
- May 17: 107
- May 16: 116
- May 15: 201
- May 14: 244
- May 13: 197
- May 12: 198
- May 11: 59
- May 10: 140
- May 9: 166
- May 8: 162
- May 7: 254
- May 6: 308
- May 5: 334
- May 4: 45
- May 3: 137
- May 2: 205
- May 1: 311
- April 30: 460
- April 29: 329
- April 28: 402
- April 27: 106
- April 26: 75
- April 25: 249
- April 24: 253
- April 23: 307
- April 22: 314
- April 21: 379
- April 20: 177
- April 19: 132
- April 18: 231
- April 17: 323
- April 16: 362
- April 15: 351
- April 14: 365
- April 13: 94
- April 12: 168
- April 11: 251
- April 10: 233
- April 9: 198
- April 8: 275
- April 7: 232
- April 6: 86
- April 5: 71
- April 4: 200
- April 3: 113
- April 2: 182
- April 1: 91
- March 31: 69
- March 30: 37
- March 29: 21
- March 28: 32
- March 27: 27
- March 26: 19
- March 25: 18
- March 24: 17
- March 23: 7
- March 22: 4
- March 21: 5
- March 20: 2
- March 19: 4
- March 18: 3
- March 17: 0
- March 16: 1
- March 15: 0
- March 14: 1
- March 13: 0
- March 12: 0
- March 11: 0
- March 10: 1
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