Gov. Murphy: No State School Closure Yet Despite High COVID Risk

NEW JERSEY — Gov. Phil Murphy says he's not ready to close school buildings statewide and shift instruction to remote, despite a new report showing that the coronavirus risk is now "high" in all 21 New Jersey counties.

Murphy said this week that New Jersey's schools have had a very small number of cases, all of which were likely caused by contact that happened outside of the buildings.

"I do not anticipate as a broad statewide matter that schools are going to close in New Jersey," he said. "I will be very surprised if they do. That option has to stay on the table."

Murphy, speaking during Monday and Wednesday news conferences, was responding to the state Department of Health's most recent "COVID-19 Activity Level Report," which is issued weekly. Here is the Wednesday news conference:

The newest report says the coronavirus activity level rose from "moderate" to "high" over the past week in three New Jersey counties — Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland. Now, all 21 are at the "high" level.

With the rise to a "high" level, state officials said, school districts in those counties may have to take more serious steps — such as quarantining or even shutting down schools — if a child shows the symptoms of COVID-19.

"When it is high risk, there are some recommendations that we make together with local school boards," said Edward Lifshitz, medical director for the state Department of Health.

"And those include things such as restricting activities that involve interactions multiple cohorts, meaning things that will bring together children and/or staff," he added.

Indeed, a number of school districts have shifted to remote instruction or, in the case of Ocean City, made modifications such as eliminating lunch periods. Read more: Ocean City High School Removes Lunch Period From Hybrid Schedule

New Jersey's statewide activity is also at a "high" level, the DOH said, now that the Garden State's new daily case total topped 4,600 for only the second time ever on Tuesday. It's also the first time New Jersey has been at the "high" level since May.

The coronavirus risk rose to "high" in each of the counties because:

• The new daily case rate in each of the counties rose to 10 or more per 100,000 people.
• The percent of COVID-19-like illnesses rose above 5.52 in each of the counties.
• The percent of positive cases rose above 10.01.

Murphy agreed that the rise in risk level is a factor in determining whether school buildings should shut and instruction should shift to all-remote.

But the governor also said New Jersey schools have had 66 cumulative outbreaks impacting 269 students, educators and staff — a small percentage considering that there are thousands of schools.

"That is well within any expected range of reality," he said.

Murphy said New Jersey schools have had to deal with issues originating outside of the school buildings rather than inside.

"What goes on outside the building clearly impacts what's going on inside the building," he said. "I worry more about transmission coming from the outside coming into the school setting."

Either way, Murphy said the school settings are probably the safest places for children to be — outside of their homes — and the state will continue to "watch like a hawk" to make sure they stay that way.

Here is what the report says:

Key metrics rising in 21 counties

The report divides New Jersey into regions and assesses their rates of new cases, COVID-19-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The daily new COVID-19 virus case rate, per 100,000 people, rose to "very high" in all 21 counties, which means they exceed 25 cases per 1,000 people. The case rate nearly doubled in one week, Nov. 14-21, in Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Union counties.

The rate of COVID-19-like illness (CLI) rose by about 50 percent in Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Salem and Somerset counties. These illnesses are defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of other types of coronavirus symptoms.

The report divides New Jersey into six regions: Northwest, Northeast, Central West, Central East, Southwest and Southeast. It then looks at each region and assigns each a "current activity level" based on case rates, COVID-19-like illnesses and positivity rates.

The following is a breakdown of counties contained within each public health region: Northwest: Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Warren; Northeast: Bergen, Essex, Hudson; Central West: Hunterdon, Mercer, Somerset; Central East: Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Union; South West: Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem; South East: Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland.

Data

The state uses various date to determine the level of activity. Here they are:

• Case rate (per 100,000) is calculated as a proportion of the population — specifically, daily new COVID-19 virus cases for every 100,000 people. Case rate is monitored as a seven-day average.
• COVID-19-like illness (CLI) is defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of coronavirus diagnosis codes. CLI is monitored as a seven-day weekly average.
• Percent positivity is the percentage of total positive tests out of all COVID-19 virus tests performed. Percent positivity is monitored as a seven-day average.
• The COVID-19 Activity Level Index (CALI) Score is calculated this way: In each region, each indicator is assigned a value based on the activity range it falls into; next, the values are averaged together and this rounded average gives the CALI Score; the statewide activity level is calculated by averaging the CALI Scores for the six regions.

Here is the data and map for each region, including their activity levels, for the week ending Nov. 21st:

Here is the map and data for the week ending Nov. 14th:

The state's COVID-19 activity timeline

After five months at the "low" or "moderate" level, the DOH says New Jersey's statewide activity has risen to "high."

It was "high" in late in April and May, and "very high" in late March and early April.

The moderate label was first assigned before the state even publicly identified a case: Feb. 15.

Here is the timeline:

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