COVID Rates In Midtown, Hell's Kitchen Show Signs Of Dipping

MIDTOWN MANHATTAN, NY — The ultimate outcome of the city's omicron surge remains unknown, but testing results from recent days suggest that the virus's pace in Midtown and Hell's Kitchen may have begun to slow.

During the seven-day period that ended Monday, just under 2,600 people tested positive for COVID-19 in the five ZIP codes that span Hell's Kitchen and Midtown: a positivity rate of 22.7 percent.

That figure, while unthinkably high compared to any other recent stage of the pandemic, nonetheless represents a slight drop from previous days. Two days earlier, the neighborhood's seven-day positivity rate was nearly 24 percent.

Some city leaders have expressed cautious optimism that New York's omicron wave has reached or is nearing its peak — though that peak still represents "an extraordinary high level of spread," Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine said Thursday.

Hospitalizations as of Monday had reached a 7-day average of 578 per day — a drop from Jan. 1, when the city was averaging 763, but still far above any levels that the city has seen in months.

Columbia University epidemiologist Dr. Jeffrey Shaman wrote in a New York Times op-ed Thursday that the city's peak was projected for "the first week of January."

That projection was based on mathematical models which took into account omicron's high level of contagiousness, as well as its tendency to cause less severe illness. South Africa, which saw the world's first omicron wave, is now seeing a steady decline in cases.

Yes there are signs that NYC may be hitting a plateau in our omicron wave.

But that plateau is at an extraordinary high level of spread, with hospitalizations high and still rising.

This remains a time for NYers to be extremely cautious. https://t.co/7zUEs5pCdG
— Mark D. Levine (@MarkLevineNYC) January 7, 2022

Some other experts have voiced similar expectations for New York. City & State reported this week that the city's peak could happen around mid-January, citing interviews with experts like Dr. Mangala Narasimhan, director of Northwell Health Critical Care Services.

"The number of inpatients coming in with COVID has seemed to plateau, we're not seeing a downturn yet, but we're not seeing a continued upward rise either," Narasimhan told the publication. "I'm very optimistic that this will not be a long wave considering what we saw in South Africa and Australia."

A total of 46,158 new COVID-19 cases were reported in the city on Thursday — a number that would have been shocking just weeks ago, but which was still below the record of 49,724 cases set last week.

For now, local leaders are still urging caution, and, most of all, pressing New Yorkers to get vaccinated and boosted, which dramatically lower the risk of being hospitalized or dying.