When Will Omicron Peak In NYC? Hopefully Soon, Experts Say

NEW YORK CITY, NY — The arrival of the omicron variant seemed to be a dreadful development in New York's long coronavirus slog, threatening to unleash another nightmarish wave of COVID-19 cases.

A few weeks into the latest surge, however, a slightly more favorable picture has emerged. Newly reported cases have shown signs of leveling off in recent days, and hospitalizations remain at less than half of where they stood in early 2020 — though they remain at their highest level in months.

So, when will the omicron wave peak in New York City?

Possibly this week, according to Dr. Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University, who wrote in a New York Times op-ed Thursday that the city's peak was projected for "the first week of January."

That projection, based on mathematical models which took into account omicron's high level of contagiousness, as well as its tendency to cause less severe illness. South Africa, which saw the world's first omicron wave, is now seeing a steady decline in cases.

Manhattan was first borough to get slammed when the omicron wave started gaining steam 3 weeks ago.

Now it’s the first borough to show a leveling off in cases.

Let’s hope rest of NYC follows soon. In meantime we need everyone to remain cautious. Still a huge amount of spread. pic.twitter.com/gWTanDFRR4
— Mark D. Levine (@MarkLevineNYC) January 5, 2022

Some other experts have voiced similar expectations for New York. City & State reported this week that the city's peak could happen around mid-January, citing interviews with experts like Dr. Mangala Narasimhan, director of Northwell Health Critical Care Services.

"The number of inpatients coming in with COVID has seemed to plateau, we’re not seeing a downturn yet, but we’re not seeing a continued upward rise either," Narasimhan told the publication. "I’m very optimistic that this will not be a long wave considering what we saw in South Africa and Australia."

A total of 42,677 new COVID-19 cases were reported in the city on Wednesday — a number that would have been shocking just weeks ago, but which was still below the record of 49,724 cases set last week.

For now, local leaders are still urging caution, and, most of all, pressing New Yorkers to get vaccinated and boosted, which dramatically lower the risk of being hospitalized or dying.