Path Of Nor'Easter Due Overnight Shifting Southward: HV Forecast

UPDATE: Snow Totals Drop For The Hudson Valley As Storm Shifts, Weakens

HUDSON VALLEY, NY — The nor'easter headed our way with lots of snow has shifted its track to the south, and forecasters are increasing their snow accumulations for southern Westchester.

Winter storm warnings remain in effect for Dutchess, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Ulster and Westchester counties. Precipitation is expected to begin after midnight.

The National Weather Service has increased snowfall predictions for southern Westchester, New York City and Long Island and reduced them around Albany. "The expected track of this system has trended south but still remains uncertain and continues to result in a large difference between the 'low end' and 'high end' snowfall forecasts. Also, there likely will be a sharp northern cut-off in snowfall amounts," the NWS said.

Both Hudson Valley Weather and First Due Weather say the situation remains fluid with less than 24 hours to go.

"A significant hiccup developed overnight with the potential for a sharp cutoff with snowfall to the north," Bruce Furbeck of First Due Weather said on Facebook Monday morning. "Enough of a change since yesterday to provide some colder temperatures and with that, higher snowfall totals for most areas, especially south of I 84. Colder temperatures likely at or below freezing will make it easier to support accumulating snowfall during the upcoming event."

The change is caused by cold, dry air working in from the north, he said, predicting that the snowfall cut-off could change to the I 84 corridor line or even further south.

For Orange, Putnam, Rockland and northern Westchester counties, the NWS predicts 8 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts possible. For southern Westchester County, the NWS now predicts 6 to 12 inches, ditto.

Snowfall rates of 1 to 2+ inches/hr are possible. This may result in difficult travel, especially during the Tuesday AM commute.

NYC could get 5 to 8 inches of snow, which would also affect the commute. Schools there have already declared Tuesday a remote learning day.

The combination of snow load and gusty winds could lead to some downed tree limbs onto power lines resulting in some power outages. The stronger winds are expected Wednesday — and temperatures are expected to plummet as the storm moves east, pulling cold air from Canada in behind it.

"Changing weather conditions and wintry problems with connections from regional flights are likely to trigger substantial delays and cancellations. Delays due to deicing operations will extend far beyond aircraft originating from Boston," said Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist.

Here's the next 48 hours at a glance based on Rockland County (and look at the wind chill):