Bad Air, High Heat, Severe Weather Risk For The Hudson Valley

HUDSON VALLEY, NY — A heat advisory is in effect, a hazardous weather outlook warns of isolated severe thunderstorms, and an air quality alert goes into effect at 11 a.m. Thursday.

"The atmosphere is tropical like and saturated through early this evening. Very conducive for heavy downpours ... all the ingredients for severe weather are available today. Whether it materializes remains to be seen," said Bruce Furbeck of First Due Weather.

The ground is saturated, too, given that we've had intermittent excessive rainfalls for almost three weeks. There's chance of severe thunderstorms and flash floods Thursday afternoon into evening, according to the National Weather Service:

• Wind gusts of 58 to 70 mph could damage trees and power lines and result in scattered power outages.
• Low risk for a brief tornado mainly across the Lower Hudson Valley and CT.
• Localized large hail to 1 inch in diameter could result in minor damage to motor vehicles.
• Localized flash flood threat if multiple storms move over the same area, with rainfall rates of 1 to 2”/hr
• Timing: 2pm to 8pm from west to east

Oppressive heat and humidity will build into the area through Saturday. Heat advisories are in effect for Thursday.

"The last three weeks have been the hottest recorded in Earth's history. And right here in New York, we're feeling the effects of the extreme weather, extreme flooding," Gov. Kathy Hochul said in a briefing Wednesday. "We had a thousand-year flooding event in part of our state in the Hudson Valley not long ago. We are here in Oswego, in Central New York, where we had a 100-year flood in 2017 and another 100-year flood in 2019 on Lake Erie. So, we are constantly being ravaged by the impacts of extreme weather and climate change.

"Tomorrow and Friday we're expecting the real feel of temperature in New York City, Long Island, and the Mid-Hudson area of being over 105. This is extreme even for some of the parts of our country where we're seeing these numbers, but for New York State, this is highly unusual."

It's going to get even hotter on Friday in the Hudson Valley.

Summer ozone and waves of wildfire smoke have reduced air quality all over New York state and the East Coast.

With the wildfire season now well underway, there are 1,030 active fires in Canada. The National Interagency Fire Center in the United States reports 47 large fires, 12 of them new. The smoke covers North America and reaches as far as Ireland.

It's going to be hot, hazy and humid. Sounds like July, but with higher temperatures than the historic average.

"The historical average for high temperatures in late July in New York City is 85," said Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist.

As you see, more rain is possible Saturday; however, it will presage a change for the better.

"The storms over the weekend will bring an explosive end to the heat wave, as much cooler and less humid air will move in later this weekend and early next week," Sosnowski said.

Just look at the temperature predicted for Monday night.

Here's the 5-day forecast based on northern Westchester:

• Thursday - Partly sunny this morning, then mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds and large hail. Highs in the lower 90s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. Heat index values in the upper 90s.
• Tonight - Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds and large hail. Humid with lows around 70. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 70 percent.
• Friday - Sunny with highs in the lower 90s. West winds 5 to 10 mph. Heat index values in the upper 90s.
• Friday Night - Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Humid with lows in the lower 70s. West winds around 5 mph.
• Saturday - Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Humid with highs around 90. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. Heat index values in the mid 90s.
• Saturday Night - Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent.
• Sunday - Mostly sunny. Highs around 80.
• Sunday Night - Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s.
• Monday - Sunny. Highs around 80.
• Monday Night - Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s.