Heavy Rain Could Cause Some Flooding In The Hudson Valley

HUDSON VALLEY, NY — Isolated rainfall rates could hit 1-2 inches an hour during thunderstorms in the region Thursday afternoon and evening, providing a low and localized risk of flash flooding across urban and poor drainage areas as well as flashier small streams, rivers, and creeks rising out of their banks.

The Weather Prediction Center has placed the entire area in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall. However, there is some uncertainty.

If the low pressure center tracks farther north over the area, the severe thunderstorm threat or tornado risk — now for eastern Connecticut and Long Island — may be expanded farther north and west, the National Weather Service said. If it stays south of Long Island, and/or if cloud cover increases more quickly than forecast, the risk of severe thunderstorms/isolated tornadoes decreases, the NWS said.

Here are the next 48 hours at a glance:

Thursday's rain is part of a big storm system bringing waves of unsettled weather "unusually active for August," AccuWeather said.

"Close to 100 million people will be at risk of severe weather across the U.S. into the weekend," said Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist. "As the busy pattern continues, a number of locations may be hit with downpours and strong thunderstorms every one to two days."

In the Hudson Valley, the weekend still looks good, on the whole.

"Saturday starts out dry but an approaching cold front will bring in possibilities for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and overnight into early Sunday," said Bruce Furbeck of First Due Weather. "Sunday and the first part of Monday will have nice weather but more rain with another front returns for Monday afternoon and Tuesday."

Here's the five-day forecast based on southern Westchester:

• Thursday - Partly sunny early, then showers with a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds around 5 mph, becoming south 10 to 15 mph this afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.
• Tonight - Mostly cloudy with showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall in the evening. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
• Friday - Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
• Friday Night - Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in the evening.
• Saturday - Partly sunny. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph, becoming south 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
• Saturday Night - Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows around 70. Chance of rain 50 percent.
• Sunday - Partly sunny. A chance of showers in the morning. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 30 percent.
• Sunday Night - Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s.
• Monday - Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.
• Monday Night - Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Chance of rain 60 percent.