PA Weather: Thunderstorms, Flooding, Damaging Winds In Monday Forecast

PENNSYLVANIA - Thunderstorms expected Monday are set to end a dry spell across the Keystone State, officials said.

“It still looks like Monday will be the highest chance for rain that our area has seen in quite a while,” National Weather Service Station Mount Holly said in a Monday statement. “Isolated showers [are] possible in the morning, but higher chances for storms are after noon.”

Who's ready for some rain? 🙋‍♂️

Rainfall entering central PA from the west this morning will continue moving across our area as the day progresses. Some thunderstorms are possible across eastern PA this afternoon, and could produce small hail and gusty winds. #PAwx pic.twitter.com/pYzwt6NDTv
— NWS State College (@NWSStateCollege) June 12, 2023

The rainfall today will be welcome to many since it's been rather dry lately. Here is our rainfall forecast for today and tonight. pic.twitter.com/2PZzKTW4gg
— NWS Mount Holly (@NWS_MountHolly) June 12, 2023

Scattered showers are set to arrive in the state before mid-afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms expected through the evening until around 7 p.m. The good news: Tuesday should see sunny skies with a high approaching 75 degrees.

As of 7 a.m. Monday, over two dozen Pennsyvlania counties are under a hazardous weather outlook until Monday night due to the possibility of scattered severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, hail and damaging winds. The affected counties are:

• Juniata
• Lycoming
• Sullivan
• Union
• Snyder
• Montour
• Northumberland
• Columbia
• Perry
• Dauphin
• Schuylkill
• Lebanon
• Cumberland
• Adams
• York
• Lancaster
• Tioga
• Delaware
• Sullivan
• Bradford
• Susquehanna
• Wayne
• Wyoming
• Lackawanna
• Luzerne
• Pike

"A storm system will bring a period of rain and thunderstorms to the area late this morning into the evening," National Weather Service said. "Some of the rainfall could be locally heavy, and isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out if storms train over the same location for an extended period of time."

"A few storms could also contain gusty to isolated damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening," the National Weather Service added.

A majority of Pennsylvania counties are experiencing “moderate drought" due to hotter than average temperatures and low soil moisture, among other factors, according to the University of Nebraska - Lincoln’s Drought Monitor. The northeasternmost and southwesternmost counties are in a lower tier of severity with "abnormally dry" conditions, according to the database.

"Over the last few weeks, especially across the western half of the Northeast, streamflows and soil moisture are very low, amid unusually hot temperatures and high evaporative demand for this time of year," drought monitor researchers wrote. "As a result, drought and abnormal dryness expanded across much of the western half of the region, especially from western New Jersey through Pennsylvania and New York."

Pennsylvania isn't the only state experiencing drier than usual conditions: most states in the northeast, midwest, southwest and upper northwest received less rain last month than in previous years on average, according to Climate.gov.

Here’s the latest forecast, per the National Weather Service:

Monday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 74. South wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Monday Night: Scattered showers, mainly before 7 p.m. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 53. West wind 5 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 74. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Showers likely, mainly after 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. South wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.