Here's How Likely A White Christmas Is For PA This Year

PENNSYLVANIA — The probability of a white Christmas is anywhere from 10 to 40 percent in major Pennsylvania metros, a projection based on three-decade averages in snow accumulation, temperatures and other climatological data.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s white Christmas probability calculations represent exact science. But they don’t always match the reality on the ground, or what current forecasting models suggest for Pennsylvania.

Historically, the Philadelphia region has between a 10 and 25 percent chance of seeing at least an inch of snow on Christmas. In the Pittsburgh area, there is between a 25 and 40 percent chance.

In the days leading up to the holiday, the National Weather Service forecasts cold air will linger, making it possible for the snow that fell Friday in the eastern part of the state to still be on the ground for Christmas this year.

Additionally, another round of light snow is possible on Christmas Eve in the Philadelphia region. The National Weather Service says there's a 40 percent chance of snow Tuesday morning. It will mix with rain after 10 a.m., then gradually stop.

An extended December outlook from The Weather Channel and Atmospheric G2 said much of the country will be near or drier than average in December. Forecasters said the month started on a cold note in much of the country, but the last half of the month should be warmer for much of the Lower 48 states.

That is not the case in the Keystone State, where temperatures are predicted to be chillier than average.

Christmas Day in Pennsylvania is historically cold, with an average high of 36.1 degrees Fahrenheit and an average low of 24 degrees F. The record high for Christmas in Pennsylvania is 63 degrees F. and the record low is -11 degrees F., according to WeatherUnderground.

Patch's national desk contributed to this report.