Has Coronavirus Peaked In Pennsylvania?

HARRISBURG, PA — Has coronavirus peaked in Pennsylvania? It's possible, state health officials say. But additional data is needed to know for sure.

A coronavirus projection model by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which has been used by the White House to influence response to the outbreak, estimates the peak for COVID-19 deaths in Pennsylvania was April 19. The peak for hospital resources was April 18.

Officials in Pennsylvania say it's possible the number of new cases have reached a peak, but more data is needed.

"It is possible that our cases have plateaued, but we likely need a few more days to say affirmatively that the number of new cases each day peaked, and what that date was," Pennsylvania Department of Health Press Secretary Nate Wardle said Wednesday.

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Since the state's first case was reported March 6, 1,622 Pennsylvanians have died from the virus. There have been 35,684 cases statewide, with 1,156 new cases reported Wednesday.

On April 11, Gov. Tom Wolf said the state was bracing for a surge of patients that week. And while the number of new cases has been going down in recent days, officials say it's not yet time to relax.

"As we see the number of new COVID-19 cases continuously change across the state that does not mean we can stop practicing social distancing,” Secretary of Health Dr. Rachel Levine said in a Wednesday news release. “We must continue to stay home to protect ourselves, our families and our community."

The predictions from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which have been referenced by members of the White House to determine the national reaction, indicate the national coronavirus infection peak in deaths and resources occurred in mid-April.

The institute bases its modeling on the expected peak of infections and the number of hospital beds, number of intensive-care beds, and ventilators available for COVID-19 patients.

According to the state's own hospital preparedness data, there are more than 3,600 ventilators available across Pennsylvania as of Wednesday. Currently, 2,764 Pennsylvanians are hospitalized due to COVID-19. Of those, 668 are on a ventilator.

All Pennsylvania schools have been closed since March 17, and all of the state's non-essential services were ordered closed March 23. A statewide stay-at-home order was instituted on April 1 and has been extended through May 8.

Here is a look at new coronavirus cases by day in April:

• April 22: 1,156
• April 21: 1,296
• April 20: 948
• April 19: 1,215
• April 18: 1,628
• April 17: 1,706
• April 16: 1,245
• April 15: 1,145
• April 14: 1,146
• April 13: 1,366
• April 12: 1,178
• April 11: 1,676
• April 10: 1,751
• April 9: 1,989
• April 8: 1,680
• April 7: 1,579
• April 6: 1,470
• April 5: 1,493
• April 4: 1,597
• April 3: 1,404
• April 2: 1,211
• April 1: 962

Here is a look at coronavirus deaths by day in April

• April 22: 58
• April 21: 360
• April 20: 92
• April 19: 276
• April 18: 80
• April 17: 49
• April 16: 60
• April 15: 63
• April 14: 60
• April 13: 17
• April 12: 13
• April 11: 78
• April 10: 78
• April 9: 29
• April 8: 70
• April 7: 78
• April 6: 12
• April 5: 14
• April 4: 34
• April 3: 12
• April 2: 16
• April 1: 11