Here Are The Metrics That Will Guide PA's Reopening

PENNSYLVANIA — State officials have provided additional details on the metrics that will be used to determine when a region is ready to begin easing coronavirus mitigation measures.

Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf over the weekend elaborated on the Department of Health metrics that will signal if a region can advance to the next phase of the reopening process. Last week, the governor announced a three-phased, regional approach to reopening: each region will be designated red, yellow, or green.

To move from the red phase, which is every region's current designation, a target goal for new infection rates must first be met. The yellow phase has a decreased level of mitigation measures. More details on each phase can be found here.

From the governor's office:

"A target goal for reopening has been set at having fewer than 50 new confirmed cases per 100,000 population reported to the department in the previous 14 days. So, for example, an area with a population of 800,000 people would need to have fewer than 400 new confirmed cases reported in the past 14 days to meet the target. An assessment will determine if the target goal has been met."

It's important to note that the target data goal is not the only metric a region needs to meet before reopening. There are testing and contact tracing requirements. For example, there must be enough testing available for those with symptoms and other target populations, health care personnel and first responders.

There must be "robust" contact tracing infrastructure in place to address cluster outbreaks and respond with isolation and quarantine orders.

Plus, each region must identify high-risk settings, such as correctional institutions, personal care homes, and skilled nursing facilities. Those facilities must have adequate safeguards in place, such as staff training, employee screening, visitor procedures and screening and adequate supplies of personal protective equipment.

There are currently six health regions: northwest; southwest; north central; south central; northeast; and southeast. Gov. Wolf said last week he plans to analyze the north central and northwest regions first, with a target of moving from them from red to yellow on May 8.

So what do these numbers mean for the Philadelphia area?

The area has a long way to go before it would meet the benchmarks laid out by the state, and Gov. Wolf has already stated the southeastern region will likely be the last to reopen.

In order for the southeastern Pennsylvania region — which includes Berks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lancaster, Montgomery, Philadelphia and Schuylkill counties — to reach the final phase where major mitigation measures are lifted, the number of new cases must be down to 2,622 over a 14-day period.

The Southeastern region is currently far from target: the last 14 days that ended Friday, the eight counties reported a combined total of 18,051 cases.

Here's the full chart released by Montgomery County officials:

Pennsylvania will use a modeling dashboard under development by Carnegie Mellon University to take a regional and sector-based approach to the reopenings, the easing of restrictions, and response, officials said.

"The administration will use this data-driven decision support tool to better understand the current health and economic status, as well as the inherent risks and benefits to reopening certain businesses and industry areas. Using data that considers worker exposure and spread risks, health care capacity, economic impact, and supply chain impact, we will prioritize reopening where it has the potential for the most positive impact on the economy for workers and businesses while mitigating risk to public health and safety," information from the state said.

Data from several commonwealth agencies — including the Departments of Labor & Industry, Human Services, Community and Economic Development, Revenue, and Health — will be used to drive the dashboard. Officials expect it to provide insights and recommendations at the industry and county level that will help inform state policy decisions.

The latest developments come as Deborah Birx, the White House’s coronavirus task force coordinator, said on Sunday that "some form of social distancing" will likely remain in place throughout the summer to protect the health of Americans.

The governor reiterated over the weekend that the administration will continue to refine its approach to reopening based on new data.

"If indicators and criteria point to a spike in cases, the commonwealth, in coordination with local officials, will need to adjust orders and restrictions to ensure the spread of disease remains at a minimum," his office said in a news release.

All of Pennsylvania's non-life-sustaining businesses have been closed in mid-March due to the pandemic. A statewide stay-at-home order has been in place since April 1.

Since the state's first case was reported March 6, 1,550 Pennsylvanians have died from the virus. There have been more than 41,000 confirmed cases statewide as of Sunday.

You can see Pennsylvania's full plan for reopening here.