Here's When PA May Be Ready To Relax Social Distancing: Study

PENNSYLVANIA — The institute behind one of the leading models for predicting the impacts of the coronavirus has released new findings that indicate when states may be able to relax some aspects of social distancing implemented to curb the spread of the illness.

The findings, a state-by-state analysis, were prepared by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and are based on estimates of when infections are predicted to drop below one per one million people in each state.

The study determines that some states may be ready to relax social distancing measures as early as May 4 provided “robust containment strategies” are implemented to prevent a second wave of infections.

The analysis shows that Pennsylvania may be ready to relax some measures a few weeks later, around the first of June. Nearby states — including New York, New Jersey, Connecticut — have the same predicted timeline. Some states likely won't be able to safely make changes until later than that, and should social distance for the better part of June, the model estimates.

Strategies for safely relaxing some social distancing include widely implemented testing, contact tracing and isolation of confirmed cases, and restricting large gatherings, the study said.

"Actual decisions by states to relax social distancing should be informed by meeting critical metrics closer to these dates, including a very low number of estimated infections in the community – less than 1 estimated infection per 1 million people," analysts wrote in a summary.

Pennsylvania's statewide stay-at-home order goes through May 8. After that, the governor has said it may be lifted on a regional basis. All Pennsylvania schools have been closed for the rest of the academic year.

In recent days, state officials have said social distancing measures have flattened the curve of new coronavirus cases in Pennsylvania. Gov. Tom Wolf has cautioned, however, that a reopening will be slow, deliberate, and careful.

"Life is going to be different on the other side of this," Wolf said during a Monday news conference announcing some preliminary steps towards recovery. "We're going to take the same measured approach to reopening as we did to closing."

And just as the country's reopening will be phased, so will the state's. The areas that have been hardest hit by the pandemic, including the Philadelphia area, will likely have longer lasting restrictions so as to prevent a second wave of infections.

"Minimizing the risk of resurgence will be more likely if the number of remaining infections in the community is at a low level," the institute's researchers said.

RELATED: PA To Begin Lifting Stay-At-Home Orders By Region On May 8

The Seattle-based institute's models, which have been cited by members of the White House Coronavirus task force, now estimate there will be 60,308 COVID-19 deaths across the United States by Aug. 4. That's down from 68,841 as predicted by the institute's researchers on April 13.

“We are seeing the numbers decline because some state and local governments, and, equally important, individuals around the country have stepped up to protect their families, their neighbors, and friends and coworkers by reducing physical contact,” said Christopher Murray, the institute's director. “Now, the challenge – as well as opportunity – is for states to figure out how to reopen the US economy and allow people to get back to work without sacrificing that progress. Relaxing social distancing too soon carries great risks of a resurgence of new infections. No one wants to see this vicious cycle repeating itself.”

As new data on the trend in infections and deaths come in from states, the estimated dates for considering relaxing social distancing may move earlier or later, the institute explained.

"Likewise, greater state capacity to undertake testing and contact tracing should also influence state decisions on relaxing some aspects of social distancing."

You can see the full analysis here.