PA Coronavirus Peak Is Likely Soon, New Projection Shows

PENNSYLVANIA — A coronavirus projection model used by the White House to influence response to the outbreak has released updated projections for when COVID-19 infections will peak in Pennsylvania, and how many people would likely die.

New projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation released Monday estimate the coronavirus outbreak will peak on April 15 in Pennsylvania — the same timeframe as the national peak.

The analysis, which The Washington Post called "America’s most influential coronavirus model," is created by the Seattle-based institute affiliated with the University of Washington and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

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The institute based its updated projections using the expected peak of infections in each state and the number of hospital beds, number of intensive-care beds, and ventilators available for COVID-19 patients when most needed.

The analysis, which is based on the assumption of full social distancing through May, estimates that between 496 and 1,203 Pennsylvania residents will die from COVID-19 by Aug. 4. You can see the full analysis here.

As of Tuesday, 240 Pennsylvanians have died from the virus. The state's first case was reported on March 6 and as of Tuesday, there were 14,599 cases in all counties.

Pennsylvania health officials have shied away from offering their own estimations of the virus' expected peak. In neighboring New Jersey, which has been hard hit by COVID-19 with more than 44,000 cases and more than 1,200 deaths as of Tuesday, Gov. Phil Murphy said this week he expected the Garden State's coronavirus peak to come sometime between late April and early May.

The institute's predictions, which have been referenced by members of the White House to determine the national reaction, indicate the national coronavirus infection peak would come in mid-April, when the nationwide supply of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients would fall 36,000 short of the supply and the supply of intensive-care beds would fall short by nearly 16,000.

On the peak day of April 15, the model estimates there will be more than 3,100 deaths nationwide. More than 81,000 deaths are likely across America by August. The model's low estimate of deaths across the country is 50,000; the high estimate is 136,000.

Some leaders say the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model is painting an overly optimistic estimate of the likely future of the crisis. The analysis conflicts with many others showing higher death rates and more drastic equipment shortages, the Washington Post reported Tuesday, noting some state leaders are growing "increasingly concerned" over the federal government's usage of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s "lower estimates."

The authors of the research article containing the findings wrote that its estimate of 81 thousand deaths over the next four months "is an alarming number, but this number could be substantially higher if excess demand for health system resources is not addressed and if social distancing policies are not vigorously implemented and enforced across all states."

In making projections for individual states, the institute took note of whether and when the states issued stay-at-home orders, closed schools, closed other non-essential services and imposed travel bans.

In Pennsylvania, all schools were closed on March 17, and all of the state's non-essential services were ordered closed March 23. A statewide stay-at-home order was instituted on April 1.

“The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths,” the authors wrote.

The authors note that the present forecast only covers the next four months and does not predict how many deaths there could be "if there is a resurgence at a later point or if social distancing is not fully implemented and maintained," the authors said.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, one of the faces of the Trump administration's coronavirus task force, has said the U.S. could experience between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths from COVID-19.

"We're going to have millions of cases," Fauci said during an appearance on CNN's "State of the Union." Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, noted that projections are subject to change, given that the disease's outbreak is "such a moving target."

>>>Full coverage of coronavirus in Pennsylvania