PA Coronavirus Surge Possible Next Week, Governor Says

HARRISBURG, PA — State officials say they're bracing for a likely surge of coronavirus cases next week in Pennsylvania. Gov. Tom Wolf, during a conference call Friday afternoon, said officials "suspect" the surge is coming next week.

“If the surge occurs next week, as we suspect it will, and it’s within the range of the capacity of our health care system, that’s going to allow us to shut this shutdown down fast, faster than if this drags on,” Wolf said.

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As of Saturday morning, 617 of the nearly 2,200 Pennsylvania residents hospitalized due to COVID-19 infections are on ventilators. Of the state's 4,907 ventilators, 1,465 are in use by both COVID and non-COVID patients, the state's hospital preparedness database shows.

More than 37 percent — or 1,652 — of Pennsylvania's ICU beds remain available as of Saturday, the database shows.

As of Friday, 416 Pennsylvanians have died from the virus. The state's first case was reported on March 6 and as of Friday, there has been nearly 20,000 cases in all of Pennsylvania's counties.

Local officials, in anticipation of the possible surge, are preparing for an influx of patients. A 40-bed mobile hospital arrived Friday at Suburban Community Hospital in Montgomery County.

All hospitals in Philadelphia and Montgomery County, the two area counties hit hardest by the virus, still have beds available. But in Montgomery County at least, things are "tightening a bit," Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh said Friday.

Projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimate the coronavirus outbreak will peak on April 15 in Pennsylvania. The analysis, which The Washington Post called "America's most influential coronavirus model" and is used by White House, is created by the Seattle-based institute affiliated with the University of Washington.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, whose projections have been referenced by members of the White House coronavirus task force, based its projections using the expected peak of infections in each state and the number of hospital beds, number of intensive-care beds, and ventilators available for COVID-19 patients when most needed.

The analysis, which is based on the assumption of full social distancing through May, estimates that between 610 and 4,000 Pennsylvania residents will die from COVID-19 by Aug. 4. You can see the full analysis here.

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