Chester County Teeters At Line Of 'Moderate' COVID Risk

CHESTER COUNTY, PA — There are now 38 counties across Pennsylvania that have a "substantial" risk of community spread of coronavirus, according to the latest data released by the Department of Health.

Chester County remains in the "moderate" risk category, but sits right on the line of 5 percent positivity that separates the categories. Today the state's COVID-19 dashboard reported Chester County's positivity rate at 5.1 percent; that number is up from 4.3 percent in the previous week.

Positivity rate is a measure of how many tests come back positive in an area, and 5 percent is the mark where public health experts say higher concern of community spread is warranted.

Community spread risk is "substantial" across much of the state, and while Chester County remains in the "moderate" risk category, neighboring Delaware, Montgomery, and Lancaster counties all presently have positivity rates that put them in the "substantial" risk category.

The Pennsylvania health department reported 99 new COVID-19 cases in Chester County in the last week. Chesco's incidence rate, which measures how fast the virus is spreading, went from 65.9 per 100,000 people the previous week, to 84.9 in the most recent week. Hospitalizations were up from 16 last week to 26 in the most recent week.

As of Tuesday, 383 persons had died of COVID-19 in Chester County. The county health department's COVID-19 dashboard reported 9,040 positive tests in the county to date, with a recovery rate of 79 percent.

On Nov. 4, the Chester County saw 106 new cases, and the next day 105.

Case numbers and deaths vary across the county's municipalities. West Chester Borough has had the highest number of cases at 627, with 19 deaths. Willistown Township has had the highest number of deaths among Chester County municipalities, at 52, and it reported 241 cases.

Higher COVID-19 case counts above 200 are being reported in West Goshen Township, at 481 cases and 12 deaths there, Tredyffrin Township with 369 cases and 16 deaths, East Goshen Township, at 350 cases and 38 deaths, New Garden Township with 301 case and one death, Coatesville with 303 cases and 3 deaths, Phoenixville Borough, with 290 cases and 23 deaths, Caln Township with 278 cases and 15 deaths, West Whiteland Township with 261 cases and 7 deaths, East Bradford Township with 246 cases and 28 deaths, Kennett Square with 245 cases and 3 deaths, East Whiteland Township with 235 cases and 2 deaths, Uwchlan Township with 230 cases and 7 deaths. East Vincent Township reports under 200 cases, at 176, but has had 39 deaths. Similarly, Honey Brook Township has had 139 cases, but reports 20 deaths.

The state's coronavirus metrics continue to see alarming levels of increase amid the fall surge. Across Pennsylvania, the percent positivity rate on tests is up to 6.9 percent from 6.1 percent the week before, and a record number of cases for a single day, 4,361, was once again reported on Tuesday.

"We need all Pennsylvanians to take a stand and answer the call to protect one another," Gov. Wolf said in a statement Tuesday. "We need Pennsylvanians to be united in wearing a mask, practicing social distancing, washing our hands and avoiding gatherings. It is only by working together that Pennsylvanians can prevent the spread of the virus."

Community spread means people have been infected with the virus in an area, including some who are not sure how or where they became infected, according to the Centers for Disease Control. Counties are rated either low, moderate or substantial transmission risks.

As recently as a month ago, only four counties fell into that most at-risk substantial level, which includes counties with more than 100 new cases per 100,000 residents over a seven day period, or a percent positivity rate above 10 percent over seven days.

The data is used to provide guidance for how schools should approach reopenings, as well as how to handle new coronavirus cases within a school community if in-person learning is taking place. The state Department of Education said it recommends a fully remote education model in counties that have substantial risk of community spread.

The 38 counties which are at substantial risk are spread across Pennsylvania and include many of its most populous counties like Philadelphia, Montgomery, Bucks, and Delaware (full list below).
Record number of new cases

As of Tuesday, the state has recorded 15,989 new cases over the past week, up from the previous seven day increase of 13,486. That means there were 2,503 more cases this week than last week.
The data shows that the fall surge has continued to steadily accelerate. Two weeks ago, the seven day total stood at 10,127.

The single day record for new cases has been repeatedly broken in recent days, with daily numbers notably higher than they were at the early height of the pandemic back in the spring.
All told, there have been 238,657 cases statewide. A total of 72 percent of cases have recovered.
Percent positivity rises

The percent positivity rate on all tests is often cited by officials as a key barometer for community health, as the metric takes into account the increased number of tests.

This number now stands at 6.9 percent statewide, up from 6.1 percent last week and 5 percent the week before.

The level considered to be concerning is 5 percent. There are now 52 counties that are over that threshold and "bear watching," the Department of Health says, including: Bedford (17.5%), Indiana (14.0%), Armstrong (13.1%), Franklin (12.3%), Lawrence (12.2%), Bradford (12.1%), Wyoming (12.0%), Venango (11.8%), Juniata (9.7%), Huntingdon (9.5%), Mifflin (9.5%), Schuylkill (9.2%), Philadelphia (9.1%), Fulton (8.8%), Elk (8.4%), Lebanon (8.4%), Monroe (8.2%), Butler (8.1%), Blair (8.0%), Luzerne (7.9%), Tioga (7.8%), Berks (7.7%), Lehigh (7.7%), Dauphin (7.6%), Delaware (7.6%), Carbon (7.5%), Erie (7.4%), Washington (7.2%), Columbia (7.1%), Mercer (7.0%), Clarion (6.9%), Jefferson (6.9%), Cameron (6.7%), Westmoreland (6.7%), Lancaster (6.5%), Northampton (6.5%), Perry (6.5%), Bucks (6.2%), Crawford (6.1%), Pike (6.1%), Somerset (6.1%), Adams (5.9%), Northumberland (5.9%), York (5.9%), Clearfield (5.6%), Cambria (5.5%), Centre (5.2%), Cumberland (5.2%), Montgomery (5.2%), Susquehanna (5.2%), Chester (5.1%), and Snyder (5.0%).

The current level of community spread by county

SUBSTANTIAL

• Adams
• Armstrong
• Bedford
• Berks
• Blair
• Bradford
• Bucks
• Butler
• Cambria
• Carbon
• Centre
• Clarion
• Crawford
• Dauphin
• Delaware
• Elk
• Franklin
• Fulton
• Huntingdon
• Indiana
• Jefferson
• Juniata
• Lancaster
• Lawrence
• Lebanon
• Lehigh
• Luzerne
• Mercer
• Mifflin
• Montgomery
• Northampton
• Northumberland
• Philadelphia
• Schuylkill
• Tioga
• Union
• Venango
• Wyoming

MODERATE

• Allegheny
• Beaver
• Chester
• Clearfield
• Clinton
• Columbia
• Cumberland
• Erie
• Fayette
• Greene
• Lackawanna
• Lycoming
• McKean
• Monroe
• Montour
• Perry
• Pike
• Potter
• Snyder
• Somerset
• Susquehanna
• Warren
• Washington
• Wayne
• Westmoreland
• York

LOW

• Cameron
• Forest
• Sullivan

Justin Heinze contributed to this report.