La Niña Winter Likely: Here's What It Means For RI

After a steamy summer, Rhode Islanders may find themselves wondering about the upcoming winter. Will it be cold and rainy or mild and dry, plunging us further into drought?

The answer may lie with La Niña, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced this month. It will also vary depending on where you live in the state. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued a La Niña Watch for the fall and winter of 2025-26, meaning there is at least a 50% chance of a weak La Niña developing later this year.

La Niña is a climate phenomenon that occurs when the central and eastern Pacific Ocean cools down more than usual. It typically causes the northern United States to be cold and wetter than usual, and the southern states to be warmer and drier than usual. That pattern generally extends to Rhode Island as well.

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El Niño, on the other hand, usually means the reverse, where the East Coast typically experiences intense storms.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts Rhode Island will be hotter and drier than usual. According to the latest Seasonal Precipitation Outlook for December through February issued Aug. 21, there is a 33-40% chance that Rhode Island will see lower than normal precipitation and temperatures above normal.

Much of the United States is moderately likely to see above-average temperatures this winter. For much of the Midwest, it is equally likely to be above or below normal. Just Washington state and southeast Alaska are likely to see below-average temperatures.

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Much of the southern U.S., stretching from the Bay Area in a U-shape to the Washington D.C. area, is moderately likely to see below-average precipitation. Pockets of the Midwest, including Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky, and much of Montana, Wyoming, and Alaska, are 33-40% likely to see above-average participation. The rest of the country remains uncertain.

On that note, much of this forecast remains relatively uncertain. “Nothing is guaranteed in this business,” said Michelle L’Heureux, scientist at the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA updates its long-range outlooks monthly, and the next forecast is scheduled for Sept. 19. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center website. See here for predictions through November 2026.

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