"The Sunday Political Brunch" -- September 23, 2012

(Providence, Rhode Island) – Much has been made about Mitt Romney’s “47%” remarks from a secretly recorded video that was released this week (see photo). So what’s the fall out? Here are some observations:

“Obama’s Advantage” – In the past week President Obama has done something significant – for the he has hit 50 percent in some presidential preference polls. All year his numbers have peaked around 47 or 48 percent, indicating he might have hit the “ceiling” of his support. Hitting 50 percent means the momentum, and the undecideds are trending his way.

“Romney’s Advantage” – Two polls out this week – Rasmussen and Gallup show the race still tied. Both of these are multi-day tracking polls, rather than a one-day snapshot. Historically, both pollsters are very accurate. So, the fact that Romney is still in the game after arguably his worst week of the campaign is significant. Simply put, the race is not over!

“Obama’s Disadvantage” – All year the Obama campaign has been warning voters about overconfidence. The emails it sends out daily are a testimony to that. Campaign leaders are worried about people assuming that reelection is inevitable, especially after this week’s developments. One friend sent be a text after Romney’s “47% Speech” and simply said, the revelation was “game, set and match” for Obama. The White House is very worried about such assumptions, because they can drive down voter turnout. They are especially worried about the youth vote, not beings as vigorous as it was four years ago. Anecdotally, I have not seen nearly the buzz for Obama on Facebook and other social networks in 2012 that I did in 2008 – again, especially among young voters.

“Romney’s Disadvantage” – Mitt Romney is not Ronald Reagan. For weeks I have been talking about how Ronald Reagan – running against a similarly weak economy – came from behind in the polls in 1980 to beat President Carter in a landslide. My point was that Romney could do the same (and he still can). But, Romney’s problems include his lack of aggression and his modest public speaking skills. Reagan won in 1980 by taking the gloves off and punching Jimmy Carter hard, but at the same time conveying that eternal Reagan optimism. This is how Reagan won so many union workers in the industrial states; the so-called “Reagan Democrats.” Romney has not been aggressive (he’s been on defense instead of offense), and his oratory skills hold no comparison to Reagan. Romney has to kick it up a notch and come out swinging, or he’s done.

“Trouble Overseas” – Continued troubles overseas pose an advantage to Romney and a peril to the White House. Any President needs to look like they have the situation under control (think Jimmy Carter in 1980). This week’s about face from the Obama Administration on the nature of the attack on the American Consulate in Libya is a case in point. At first the cause was random violence prompted by an anti-Muslim film in the U.S. Now a calculated and planned terrorist attack is being blamed. Those are two very different scenarios. Sure, it could be based on new facts and developments that have come to light since the attacks, but the downside of that is that it raises questions about the quality of intelligence and how much the White House is really clued-in on the Middle East.

“Senate Impact” – While we have focused almost exclusively on the Presidential campaign, the other big national political story is the battle for control of the U.S. Senate. A month ago, it looked like a toss-up, with Republicans having a 50-50 chance at taking control of the Senate. The Real Clear Politics composite polls gave each party 46 seats, with eight up for grabs. Now, due to a number of factors- including the President’s slight surge in the polls – the Senate is looking 48 Democrat; 44 Republican; with eight seats that are still too close to call (but three definitely trending Democrat). Even if President Obama wins reelection, 50 to 48 percent, his modest coattails in some races (Wisconsin and Ohio, for example) could keep the Senate in Democratic hands. The GOP meltdown in the Akin-McCaskill race in Missouri could be the fatal blow.

As always, I welcome your questions, comments and opinions! Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com