"The Sunday Political Brunch" -- July 26, 2015

Dr. Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is a freelance Political Reporter based in New England and a Political Analyst for KGO Radio 810-AM San Francisco.

(Providence, Rhode Island) – Everywhere I go, it’s the only question I get. “Can Donald Trump really win the Republican nomination? Can he really be elected President?” He continues to dominate the entire 2016 Presidential campaign, on both sides of the aisle. I have made a few comments here and there, in recent weeks, but let’s “brunch” on the whole Trump phenomenon this week!

“By the Numbers” – The latest Public Policy Poll out on July 23 has “The Donald” in the lead. Here are the numbers: Trump 19 percent; Governor Scott Walker (R-WI), 17 percent; former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL), 12 percent; Dr. Ben Carson,10 percent; Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), 10 percent; former Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR), 8 percent; 4 percent each for Cary Fiorina, Senator Rand Paul (R-KY), and Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX); 3 percent a piece for Governor John Kasich (R-OH), and Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ); and 1 percent for former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), Governor Bobby Jindal (R-LA), and former Governor Rick Perry R-TX). Three others had less than 1 percent. As always, polls are a snapshot of today only; not a predictor of November 2016.

“GOP vs. Hillary” – Winning the GOP nomination is one thing, but winning the White House is quite another. Trump would have to get out the Republican base (which is not guaranteed after he has angered some key party elders), and, he has to win a majority of those registered independents. Right now here’s how potential GOP rivals stack up to Hillary Clinton in the latest USA Today poll: Clinton 46 percent, Bush 42 percent; Clinton 46 percent, Rubio 40 percent; Clinton 49 percent, Huckabee 40 percent; Clinton 58 percent, Walker 37 percent; Clinton 51 percent, Trump 34 percent. Yes, Trump can win the nomination, but right now four other GOP contenders fare better head-to-head against Hillary Clinton.

“Fiorina Insight” – To really grasp Trump’s buzz, you need to look at two other candidates – Carly Fiorina and Dr. Ben Carson. None of the three has ever held elective office. Of Trump, Fiorina told ABC News he “taps into an anger that I hear every day.” While she and Trump differ widely on the issues and don’t really like each other, Fiorina noted that she, Trump, and Carson are not part of the “professional political class” that runs both parties. All three candidates have appeal to disaffected voters who feel they have no voice in American politics. Here’s my prediction: Carson has already peaked; Trump will peak; but keep your eyes on Fiorina. She may wind up the VP nominee,or a promised position of Treasury Secretary, but she – pardon the pun – has legs.

“Perot Comparison” – Trump’s surging appeal takes me back to 1992 and Ross Perot’s insurgent third-party Presidential campaign. Perot was also a wealthy, successful businessman who appealed to the disaffected, and shot from the hip in his stump speech (even if he sometimes put his foot in his mouth, like Trump). In April 1992, the Gallup Poll had it President George H.W. Bush 42 percent; Governor Bill Clinton (D-AR) 25 percent and H. Ross Perot (I-TX) at 24 percent. But Perot’s maverick stump speech took off and by mid-June it was Perot 39 percent; Bush 31 percent; and, Clinton stuck at 25 percent. A month later, Perot quit the race, only to rejoin in October. The final vote was Clinton 43 percent; Bush 38 percent; and, Perot 19 percent. My point is - that like Perot - Trump may spike now, only to fade over the next year of the campaign.

“Media Coverage” – As with Perot, there’s a huge media fascination with Trump. He, in fact, is dominating the media coverage. But a backlash has started by some media outlets. The Huffington Post says it will no longer cover Trump in its political section, and instead is relegating him to the celebrity news area with the likes of the Kardashians and Taylor Swift. On the other hand, Fox News Channel can’t get enough of Trump. He is on all the time, much to the chagrin of the other GOP candidates.

“Advantage Trump” – I don’t want to overstate my Ross Perot-Donald Trump analogy, but some of the similarities bear discussion. Let’s say Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, Ted Cruz, and Jim Gilmore don’t fare well in Iowa and New Hampshire. They may be forced out of the race simply because they are “vote poor” and “cash poor.” Even Jeb Bush - if he doesn’t win either of the first two contests - still has name recognition, campaign donations, and a famous name, so he can sustain a slow start. But the only GOP candidate who can self-fund a fight to the bitter end is Trump. Like Perot, he cuts another check and he keeps on running.

“Three’s a Crowd?” – Of course my last comment begs the question: If Trumps continues to sour with the Republican core establishment, will he run as a third party candidate, like Perot? He says no, but I think it’s very possible. He likes the game; he likes the buzz; and, he likes the headlines - and, I think he’d really like to be President. For months I have talked about a repeat of the 1992 Clinton-Bush election fight, but yes, we could see an even closer comparison if it’s Bush-Clinton-Trump(a/k/a Perot clone) on the ballot. It could happen folks!

For whom would you vote, in the “1992 Re-do Election?” Let us know by clicking the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

© 2015, Mark Curtis Media, LLC.

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