"The Sunday Political Brunch" -- May 17, 2015

Dr. Mark Curtis, ED.D., is a freelance Political Reporter based in New England, and a Political Analyst for KGO Radio 810-AM San Francisco!

(Providence, Rhode Island) – Over the past several weeks we’ve been handicapping the Presidential candidates as they officially jumped into the race. But then we got sidetracked with some other news, so let’s jump back in the chase for the White House on the Republican side. We’ll “brunch” on that this week:

“Huckabee Plus” – Former Governor Mike Huckabee (R-AR) is in. He has assets, including a man of few means from Hope Arkansas, rising to a successful run in the Governor’s mansion for twelve years, and even playing in a rock n’ roll band. Sound familiar? Yes, he has similar chops to President Clinton’s story, and history could repeat itself, albeit from the other side of the aisle. Huckabee is nationally known and he now lives in Florida - a must win GOP state. He also campaigns on a simple “flat tax” agenda, where everyone pays the same rate. It’s a bumper sticker issue; easy to remember!

“Huckabee Minus” – He’s going to face tough questions about the early release of a prison inmate that he okayed. That inmate went on to kill four police officers in Washington State. Yes, this the Republican version of Willie Horton, and in politics the opposition has a long memory. Expect Democrats, and even his fellow Republicans, to grill him on this. Huckabee is also a conservative Baptist minister – sure to get him many conservative Republican votes – but perhaps off-putting to GOP moderates, and certainly many independents. He will need lots of middle-of-the-road votes to win the White House.

“Fiorina Plus” – Like Hillary Clinton, Fiorina was raised in a middle-to-upper-middle class family, with politically active parents, who wanted their daughters well-educated. Clinton went to Wellesley and Yale; Fiorina to Stanford and MIT. While on opposite sides of the political aisle, they were females who rose to the top of male-dominated professions – Clinton in politics; Fiorina in business. Each is truly a pioneer. Fiorina was the first woman to lead a Top-20 American company. In a year when the female vote will prove most critical, she has the chops to go toe-to-toe with former Secretary of State Clinton.

“Fiorina Minus” – Much like Mitt Romney, Fiorina, is going to be attacked for her success. Yes, Hewlett-Packard laid-off thousands after its merger with Compaq, and Fiorina was eventually ousted as the tech-sector bottomed out. Romney, too, faced criticism for downsizing and outsourcing jobs overseas. Despite this, both of their ventures became extremely profitable and later involved creating thousands of new jobs. It’s the ebb and glow of economic cycles. But Fiorina is likely to be judge harsher for perceived failures, than she is for perceived successes. Is it fair? Is it, in part, sexist? Stayed tuned as the jury is still out! Mrs. Clinton faces similar hurdles on some of her history, too.

“Carson Pluses” -- Doctor Ben Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, is the darling of the political right. A black conservative; self-made man; and, with a fire-brand stump speech, he is a real crowd pleaser. And, he’s part of a small, but growing force in America’s minority communities, which is questioning the racial politics of the past fifty years, wondering if there is a brand new way. Even if Carson is not the nominee, can he pull significant votes to the GOP that used to be loyally in the Democratic camp? Again, he could be a factor.

“What’s Their Role?” – From my perspective, each of these three is at best a long shot, but could have an impact in the race. Huckabee could be the link to religious conservatives, no matter who is the nominee. In 2008 and 2012, John McCain and Mitt Romney failed to get that key GOP constituency to the polls, and the party lost. Perhaps Huckabee can get the faithful to the polls and help his party win. Fiorina could be a spoiler, as a Vice Presidential running mate, or Treasury Secretary-designee, she could pull significant female votes from Hillary Clinton. As mentioned, Ben Carson could attract new minority votes to the GOP. Keep an eye on all of them!

“Who Else is In?” – In previous weeks we have looked at Senators Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio on the GOP side. Now there are six declared Republican candidates. More could be on the way including former Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL); former Governor Rick Perry (R-TX); Governor Scott Walker (R-WI); and former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA). On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton is in; so too, is Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Likely entrants include former Governor Lincoln Chafee (D-RI); former Governor Martin O’Malley (D-MD); and Vice President Joe Biden, of Delaware. The Republicans are definitely in for a free-for-all, but Democrats could be, too.

“The Dynamics” – It’s very rare for either party to retain the White House after a two-term Presidency. There have been very few exceptions. Still, the prospect of the nation’s first female President (or Vice President) could change all of that. My prediction is that if Hillary Clinton is indeed the Democratic nominee, Republicans will at least field a female VP candidate to try to split the female vote. Republicans need to do better among women – but they don’t need to win the female vote outright – to win the White House.

Who is your choice for nominee for President in both parties? Just click the comment button at www.MarkCurtisMedia.com.

© 2015, Mark Curtis Media, LLC.

Photo courtesy: WhiteHouse.gov