Analysis: Huntsman Still Looking to Get Traction in SC

With each passing presidential debate, the stakes get higher for Jon Huntsman. At Wednesday’s debate in California, some thought he was at the top of his game. Tonight’s debate in Tampa, broadcast by CNN and hosted by the Tea Party Express, presents another opportunity for Huntsman to reverse his fortunes with the group that has been least receptive to him — the Tea Party.

Since declaring his candidacy in June, Huntsman has acquired endorsements from the current Attorney General, Alan Wilson and his predecessor, , as well as several members of . Huntsman has also assembled a strong , one that stretches across party lines. Not incidentally, he has received media coverage that would be the envy of a candidate like Ron Paul, who’s polling numbers are inversely proportional to the amount of mainstream media coverage he receives, particularly when compared to Huntsman.

The problem for Huntsman is that positives haven't made much impact on voters. He has yet to get above five percent in any poll. A poll late last month showed him with two percent support in South Carolina. And it’s not just here that he’s struggling. A poll in Nevada, which neighbors his native Utah, showed him with one percent support.

His South Carolina campaign co-chair Mike Campbell told Patch that it’s still early.

“We’re not concerned with poll numbers yet. We’re several months away,” Campbell said. “It’s a marathon not a sprint.”

Danielle Vinson, political science chair at Furman University, thinks the odds could be stacked against Huntsman in the state.

“He comes across as more moderate compared to the other candidates in the race,” Vinson said. “But the moderates are not the crowd you go after in the primary. “

If Huntsman were merely polling low that would be something that could reasonably be overcome, since he is not well known in the early primary states. Indeed, both Bill Clinton and John McCain garnered their respective parties’ nominations with similar polling numbers at this point in the campaign.

The real problem for Huntsman is that his unfavorable ratings are nearly equal to or exceed the percentage of voters who either have no opinion of him or have never heard of him. In South Carolina, he has a 44 percent unfavorable rating while 47 percent of those polled had no opinion or never heard of him. In New Hampshire, the other state where Huntsman has spent a lot of time campaigning, the numbers are worse — 33 percent have never heard of him and 47 percent have an unfavorable view.

The negative view of Huntsman among voters is mostly tied to his time as Ambassador to China in the Obama Administration from 2009-2011. This is perhaps as a good a measure as any of the degree of President Barack Obama’s unpopularity, that a person who served in his administration — not his cabinet — for only two years is viewed so negatively.

“People don’t know much about him other than that he served in the Obama administration,” Vinson said. “And for some, that’s enough to automatically take him out of it.”

But that might not be the only reason for the negatives. To others, Huntsman has a tone problem. As one South Carolina insider put it, “He almost dares you to disagree with him on issues that rub the majority of primary voters the wrong way — civil unions, global warming. When he takes such staunch stances on these issues, he turns too many people off right off the bat.”

And all that media coverage might actually make things worse. “Being popular with the media might not necessarily be a good thing with Republican primary voters,” said Chip Felkel, a veteran Upstate political strategist.

But the media blitz is necessary according to Kyle Kondik at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “He needs to get his name out. I’m sure if Mitt Romney or Rick Perry wanted to do interviews in prime time on network television they could, but they don’t need to.”

Felkel said the manner in which Huntsman has gotten has name out hasn’t been beneficial to Huntsman either. “He’s more of a reserved candidate and the coverage has not been reserved. There is a contradiction in that he’s portrayed as Superman when he is really more of a Clark Kent.”

Huntsman’s image and affiliation with Obama notwithstanding, his support at present may actually be a reflection of the popularity of his beliefs in the current climate.

Veteran watchers of the South Carolina political scene who were contacted for this article seem to agree with Kondik, who thinks it just might not be Huntsman’s time. “He’s not a good fit for South Carolina right now,” Kondik said. “They aren’t looking for moderates. They’re looking for a conservative they can trust.”

Campbell who worked on behalf of Mike Huckabee in 2008, harkened back to the McCain-Huckabee race while hinting that Huntsman’s efforts in the Palmetto State may be redoubled in the Low Country.  “McCain won in South Carolina and did not carry the Upstate, he carried the coast. The new seventh congressional district is more moderate-leaning.”

According to Felkel the campaign might want to implement that strategy sooner rather than later. "it's not too late. But it's getting there," he said.

The Huntsman candidacy has been, from the start, predicated on his electability. Huntsman all but said as much in the debate last week and has been more pointed on the differences between himself and, not just frontrunners Perry and Romney, but the rest of the field as well.

Kondik said he thinks Huntsman would give Obama serious problems in a general election. Except there is the minor detail of the getting his party’s nomination.

In another sentiment shared by some insiders, Kondik believes Huntsman could be positioning himself for 2016. Kondik said, “If the Republican nominee turns out to be unelectable, he becomes more attractive in the next cycle.”

Such an occurrence would not be a first for the GOP. In 1964, they nominated staunch conservative Barry Goldwater who won just six states (one of which was South Carolina), and 38.4 percent of the vote in an historic landslide defeat to Lyndon Johnson. In the following presidential election in 1968, the party nominated the comparatively moderate Richard Nixon, who won convincingly over Hubert Humphrey.

The Huntsman team, however, is fixed on 2012. Without mentioning any other candidates Campbell said,” The main thing is electability and who can beat Barack Obama. We are a center-right nation and that’s where Jon Huntsman is.”

Whether or not that will be enough to impress South Carolina voters remains to be seen.