Primaries Past (2000): Bush Outlasts Gore

Every Tuesday from now until the Republican Primary on Jan. 21, Patch will look back at the primaries in South Carolina from 1980-2008, with an emphasis on the GOP. Every Republican winner in South Carolina earned the nomination, in electoral history. This is the sixth in the series. See Patch’s stories on previous campaigns here.

Much has been written about the 2000 presidential election, and in light of the events that followed, its standing as a turning point in the country’s history has only grown.

Aside from the electoral ramifications, the race’s impact is still being felt, as it seemed to confirm the Red State-Blue State divide that has taken hold in the country.

Unlike many of the elections that preceded it, the 2000 Republican Presidential field had no candidate who was “next in line.” Nevertheless, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, the eldest son of the 41^st President George H.W. Bush, quickly assumed the role of frontrunner.

On the Democratic side, things were a little tidier. Vice President Al Gore was the clear frontrunner and after a minor threat from New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley, he won the nomination and began prepping for his opponent in the general election.

Bush, meanwhile, was prepared for a long fight and compiled the necessary resources to win such a battle. He turned away billionaire publisher Steve Forbes in the Iowa caucuses and looked to lock up the race in New Hampshire.

But Arizona Sen. John McCain rose to the challenge. McCain did not campaign in Iowa and instead bet heavily that his message of reform would take hold among the more independent New Hampshire voters. He was right. His rout of Bush by 18 percentage points (48-30) set the stage for a fight in South Carolina. Bush won the Delaware primary, but that was merely a prologue for what took place here.

The Bush and McCain campaigns spent nearly two straight weeks in South Carolina and as Election Day neared the tactics became increasingly nasty. The most notable bit of nastiness came from the now mythic push poll question which asked voters if they would support McCain if they knew he had fathered a child out of wedlock with a black prostitute. The question was a reference to McCain’s adopted daughter, who was born in Bangladesh.

The story of the push poll has achieved something close to mythic status in political circles. What is unclear is if it actually ever happened. No recording exists of such a question and some have speculated that the story got its legs in an e-mail from a Bob Jones University professor that suggested Bush had the type of relationship described in the push poll question.

McCain’s campaign team all but accused Bush’s campaign director Karl Rove with orchestrating the quasi-scandal, a charge Rove has always denied. Whether or not the story is true almost did not matter. It forced McCain to go off his message of reform and highlighted his lack of credentials among Christian conservatives and Bush scored a solid, double-digit win in South Carolina.

A forgotten fact of the 2000 campaign season was South Carolina’s role in influencing the eventual nominee. Legend says that McCain’s loss in the Palmetto State all but ended his presidential bid. But he won the next two primaries in Michigan and in his home state of Arizona.

But the win in South Carolina allowed Bush to solidify his fundraising edge over McCain, which was already pronounced.

That advantage was the difference in Super Tuesday. Bush was able to pour more money into more states and won nine of the 13 states that were in play, clinching the nomination.

Once the nominees were secure, analysts predicted that the presidency would be decided by a group of swing states that could go either way.

As always, the economy was a key issue in the general election campaign, but Bush told voters he would govern as a “compassionate conservative.” He also said he would never let American troops be involved in nation-building.

Gore chose to distance himself from Bill Clinton, who had been impeached as a result of his affair with Monica Lewinsky. Gore would come to regret the decision, as Clinton would have been able to provide Gore with a much-needed injection of charisma.

As expected, the vote came down to a group of key states: Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Wisconsin and, of course, Florida. Gore won the first four states — all by less than one percent — and then the election came down to Florida.

Early on election night and before polls had closed in Florida, television networks declared Gore the winner of the state and therefore of the presidency. But a few hours later they retracted the projection. Still later, Bush was projected the winner, but that too was retracted.

When the sun rose on Wednesday morning there was no President-elect. The subsequent month saw a series of certifications, recounts and legal rulings that sent the country into near-crisis.

Bush was originally certified the winner by 537 votes. Gore requested recounts in mostly Democratic sections of the southern part of the state. Those recounts were eventually blocked by the Supreme Court and Bush was awarded the presidency more than a month after the last vote had been cast.

Postscript

• Many Gore supporters blamed Green Party candidate Ralph Nader for the defeat. Long before Election Night, Nader was urged by many on the left to step aside for fear he would take votes away from Gore in what was sure to be a close election. Had Nader done so, Gore almost certainly would have been president. While the example of Florida is the most obvious place where Nader hurt Gore, New Hampshire is often overlooked. Bush won the Granite State by just 7,211 votes and Nader picked up 22,198 votes. To put it another way, Nader earned 1.6 percent of the vote in Florida and 3.9 percent in New Hampshire. Had Gore won New Hampshire's four electoral votes, he would have been the 42nd President as that was the margin of difference between him and Bush.
• Bush easily defeated Gore in South Carolina by a margin of 57 to 41 percent.
• Gore was the second candidate to lose despite winning the popular vote. Samuel Tilden beat Rutherford Hayes by three percent in 1876 but still lost the electoral vote.
• The election was not the closest in history as is often said. Gore and Bush were separate by .5 percent. Both John F. Kennedy in 1960 and James Garfield in 1880 won by narrower margins.