Tropical Storm Chantal: Hurricane Watch Issued

UPDATE 11 A.M. WEDNESDAY: Tropical Storm Chantal has lot much of its organization as it heads for the Dominican Republic. Read the latest. 

UPDATE 2 P.M. TUESDAY: Tropical Storm Chantal has gained speed as it moves on course for a Wednesday arrival in the Dominican Republic.

Forecasters have issued a hurricane watch for the southwest coast of Hispaniola, but as Chantal encounters rough terrain, dry air and overall inhospitable conditions, it's not clear if it will survive for a late weekend arrival on the Florida coast.

Currently reaching sustained speeds of 65 mph, Chantal could be a hurricane by the time it reaches Hispaniola on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Once the storm exits Hispaniola, it will encounter strong upper-level winds that will work against the storm. Overall dry conditions in the Caribbean are also factors working against the storm. 

If it survives, however, forecasters have the storm on a tentative path for a brush with the Florida east coast late Saturday into Sunday.

The original story appears as follows:

Tropical Storm Chantal strengthened slightly on Monday and its path has shifted some, promising impacts with the mainland U.S., but there are plenty of obstacles in front of the third storm of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Forecasters expect some modest strengthening of the storm over the next 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center. That means the storm will be near hurricane strength when it reaches Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

But Hispaniola, with its massive mountains, is almost always hurricane shredder. When Chantal comes off the island, it will encounter moderate to strong westerly vertical wind shear, the Hurricane Center predicts. That will further disorganize the storm, forecasters predict.

By the end of this week, Chantal will likely impact Florida and the southern U.S., the Hurricane Center predicts. The storm will be significantly weakened, but it will be on a north-northwestward or northward path.