Seniors Brace For Another Hit As Slim Social Security Bump Is Forecast

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Millions of seniors are already bracing for another year of financial strain — and a new analysis hints that relief may not be on the way.

The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy group, is warning that 2026 could bring the lowest cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security beneficiaries since 2021. In its latest analysis, the league estimates the 2026 COLA will land at just 2.4 percent, down from the already modest 2.5 percent adjustment for 2025.

“If our predictions come true and the 2026 COLA comes in at the lowest we’ve seen since 2021, seniors will face additional pressure at a time when they’re already strained financially,” TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said.

The group says the small increase is further evidence that Social Security payments are failing to keep pace with inflation. According to Benton, the data backs up what the organization has been hearing from older Americans for years.

“Our research puts numbers to what seniors have been telling us for years: Social Security benefits aren’t keeping up with inflation, inadequate COLAs are to blame, and seniors aren’t happy with Congress’s failure to act,” Benton said.

The Senior Citizens League says its estimates are based on data from the Consumer Price Index, Federal Reserve interest rates, and the national unemployment rate, all of which are factored into a new forecast each month.
The organization, which has been tracking these trends since its founding in 1992, also emphasized the broader financial landscape for seniors in its May report:

• 73 percent of American seniors rely on Social Security for at least half their income.
• 39 percent say Social Security makes up their entire income, according to TSCL’s research.
• Seniors spend more than $1,000 per month on healthcare costs, while over half live on less than $2,000 per month.
• 94 percent of survey respondents said the 2025 COLA adjustment was too low.
• TSCL warns that continued lagging COLAs could push millions of seniors into poverty.

Benton also noted that 55.8 million seniors — what she called a "vast majority of Americans" — believe that Social Security and Medicare reform should be a high or top priority for both Congress and the current presidential administration.

The forecast arrives just weeks after President Donald Trump signed an executive order targeting high prescription drug costs. According to TSCL, the order requires pharmaceutical companies to match international drug prices or face government intervention starting in early June.

“The executive order accuses pharmaceutical companies of price-gouging Americans,” the league said in a statement. “It claims that by charging Americans more for drugs, drug companies subsidize other countries at our expense.”

While the drug pricing policy could provide relief in one area, the league’s report underscores a growing concern: for many seniors, the rising cost of living is outpacing their only source of income.

Meanwhile, the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index report released last week showed inflation was up 2.3 percent from a year ago, and down slightly from 2.4 percent in March. That's the lowest 12-month inflation rate in more than four years.

But experts say the price relief may not last. Inflation may rise again despite Trump's move to reduce high tariffs. This could throw a monkey wrench into whether they reduce interest rates.

“If the increases in tariffs announced so far are sustained, they are likely to interrupt progress on disinflation and generate at least a temporary rise in inflation,” Philip Jefferson, vice chair of the Federal Reserve, said last week in New York.