Kansas Special Election: Republican Ron Estes Wins House Seat In Tight Race

WICHITA, KS — In what was widely seen as the first electoral test for President Trump since his stunning victory in November, Republican Ron Estes defeated Democrat James Thompson after a tight battle for the congressional seat in Kansas' 4th District. The seat was left open when Republican Rep. Mike Pompeo was selected to head up the CIA, triggering the special election. In deep red, rural Kansas, Republicans figured they'd have no trouble holding the seat, but some polling suggested the underdog Thompson would have a fighting chance — and in the end he lost only by single digits.

Early results looked promising for Thompson as numbers from Sedgwick County, which contains Wichita, showed the Democrat with a strong lead, especially in early voting. Most of the rural counties, as expected, were swinging to Estes. But as more results rolled in throughout the night, Thompson's chances faded and Estes' stock soared. (For more information on this and other political stories, subscribe to the White House Patch for daily newsletters and breaking news alerts.)

With 99 percent of precincts reporting, the New York Times declared Estes the winner 53.3-45. Chris Rockhold, the Libertarian candidate, won 1.7 percent of the vote.

Trump won the district by 27 points in the general election, which is why Republicans were confident going into Tuesday's race. The last time a Democrat won the 4th District was 1992, so a win for Thompson would have been an upset on multiple levels. Many observers had initially simply written off the race as an easy win for the GOP, only paying attention as election day got closer. In the afternoon on Monday, the Cook Political Report, which had been predicting the race to "likely" go to Estes, downgraded that prediction to a "lean" toward the Republican.

Harry Enten, a poll-watcher at FiveThirtyEight, said on Twitter that even a narrow win would be a tough blow for Republicans: "Either way, this will not be a GOP blowout," he said. "Pretty much any possible [at this point] result will be consistent with a big swing against GOP nationally."

Many Republicans echoed these sentiments, saying that they were happy Estes won but dismayed with how tight the race was. Democrats, on the other hand, lashed out at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for neglecting to fund Thompson's efforts.

As is typical for non-standard and mid-term elections, the electorate skewed older on Tuesday:

Even as an ostensible "win" for the GOP, the night's results may have a chilling effect on the party. The fact that a district Trump won by 27 points could come down to a single-digit win for a Republican, so soon after the general election, could spook representatives thinking about 2018 whose seats are far less safe.

"There are over 100 Republicans sitting in districts that wouldn't have been heavily GOP enough to overcome the [Democratic] swing we saw in [Kansas] tonight," tweeted Tom Bonier, the CEO of the political data firm TargetSmart.

Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Ted Cruz all chipped in to help out Estes as the special election approached. While the president and vice president's voices were heard in living rooms across the district on robo-calls rallying support for Estes, Cruz flew in for on-the-ground campaigning. The president tweeted out his endorsement of Estes Tuesday morning: "Ron Estes is running TODAY for Congress in the Great State of Kansas. A wonderful guy, I need his help on Healthcare & Tax Cuts (Reform)."

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Photo by Whitney Curtis/Getty Images News/Getty Images