Hurricane Lee Latest: Dangerous Surf, Rip Currents Forecast For VA

VIRGINIA — Rough surf and dangerous rip tides could ruin plans for the beach late this week in Virginia as Hurricane Lee continues churning up the waters of the Atlantic Ocean. Forecasters said far eastern New England to Atlantic Canada could face landfall from the storm at the end of the week.

AccuWeather forecasters have given an all-clear from the threat of a direct hit from Florida to North Carolina, which will prevent Lee's high winds and flooding rain from reaching areas recently hard-hit by Idalia. The storm is expected to briefly become a Category 4 again before it turns north.

A high-pressure system moving eastward will bring cooler air to Virginia by Wednesday, the National Weather Service said. Because of the front's slow move to the east, there will likely be storms as it moves through the Commonwealth Tuesday and Wednesday.

That cold front and the jet stream that could help keep Lee off shore as it heads north past the mid-Atlantic states, with landfall possible in New England or Canada. But where that northerly turn takes place will determine how close Lee gets to the U.S. mainland.

The hurricane, currently a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with 120 mph maximum sustained winds, is predicted to remain off the eastern U.S. coast until it reaches New England or Atlantic Canada sometime on Friday, according to the 9 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

As Lee approaches, the jet stream will determine the extent of the direct impacts in the northeastern United States, AccuWeather.com said Monday.

If the jet stream swings eastward and off the Atlantic coast, it should help to protect the mid-Atlantic states from feeling direct rain and high winds from Lee, which would be pushed along and would avoid a direct hit on the U.S. but still would likely roll into Atlantic Canada.

However, if the jet stream hangs back, when combined with Lee's slow movement initially, the hurricane could be pulled in close to the U.S. by steering winds during the middle and latter part of next week. In that scenario, there is the risk of a landfall in eastern New England with widespread risks to lives and property.

Forecasters are studying primary impacts from Lee from southeastern Massachusetts on northeastward through Nova Scotia, areas of Newfoundland and Laborador.

Hurricane Lee is currently located about 340 miles north of the Leeward Islands and 1,045 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and is moving at a much slower speed of 7 mph.

Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to affect portions of the southeastern U.S. coast as well, and these conditions are expected to spread north along much of the East Coast.

The National Weather Service does not have any alerts issued for the Baltimore-DC region.
Temperatures for the metro are forecast to cool down this week, giving the area a break from scorching high-90 degree temperatures in recent weeks. Lows throughout the week are expected to be in the 60s.

The weather service anticipates a chance for thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday with daily high temperatures dropping from the upper 80s to the 70s by Thursday, the National Weather Service said.

Here's the latest DC region forecast:

Monday: Isolated showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. Calm wind.

Tuesday: A chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8pm and 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. South wind around 6 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 75.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 57.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 76.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 80.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 60.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 83.

Hurricane Season Forecast

After becoming a monstrous Category 5 storm with 165 mph sustained winds, the most powerful hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, Hurricane Lee dropped back to a major Category 3 storm by Friday evening.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season was Sept. 10, with most storms forming between mid-August and mid-October, according to the NHC

With three months remaining in the Atlantic hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, the Atlantic basin has already generated two major hurricanes, Franklin and Idalia, with Lee becoming the season's third and most powerful hurricane.

In August, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center revised its predictions for the season due to the effects of El Niño on the Atlantic basin. The outlook now includes a 70 percent chance of 14 to 21 named storms, of which six to 11 could become hurricanes and two to five could become major hurricanes.

Measuring Hurricane Winds On Saffir-Simpson Scale

Hurricanes are measured 1 to 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. While the scale makes references to wind speed, it’s really concerned with the type of damage that winds at particular speeds will create – in other words, intensity, which is not always a direct link to wind speed.

Category 1: Sustained winds of 74-95 mph. “Very dangerous winds will produce some damage.” A Category 1 hurricane could destroy older mobile homes and damage newer ones and poorly built houses. Well-built homes could have damage to shingles, siding, gutters and soffit panels.

Category 2: Sustained winds of 96-110 mph. “Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage.”“Substantial risk of injury or death to people, livestock and pets.” Mobile homes built before 1994 will probably be destroyed, as will some newer ones, and some poorly built homes. Near total power loss expected.

Category 3: Sustained winds of 111-129 mph. “Devastating damage will occur.” Poorly built frame homes will be wrecked. Unprotected windows will be broken by flying debris. Well-built homes will be damaged, older metal buildings will fail.

Category 4: Sustained winds of 130-156 mph. “Catastrophic damage will occur.”Well-built homes will lose or suffer damage to most of their roofs and exterior walls. Top floors of apartment buildings will be damaged, and fallen trees and wires will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks or months, and most of the area will be uninhabitable.

Category 5: Sustained winds greater than 157 mph. A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed with total roof failure and wall collapse. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted. Power outages will last for weeks or months, and most of the area will be uninhabitable.