Lower Gas Prices Forecast For VA In 2024: Here’s Why

VIRGINIA — Gas is not expected to cost as much next year in Northern Virginia, according to a 2024 fuel price outlook that looks at current market conditions and speculates on how they may affect fuel prices in the future.

In the Commonwealth, the average per gallon price is currently $2.98, according to AAA. GasBuddy, an app that helps users find cheap fuel in their area, forecasts prices will average between $3.14 and 3.46 a gallon in 2024.

The average daily cost of gasoline in the Washington, D.C., region could go as high as $3.90 to $4.30, Gas Buddy said.

AAA said the highest average price Virginia drivers paid for a gallon of regular unleaded gas was $4.86 on June 14, 2022.

The national average for a gallon of gas fell below last year’s low just in time for Christmas travel, AAA Mid-Atlantic said. "Tepid demand and a low cost for oil, which is hovering around $70 per barrel are factors in the low prices."

Drivers can find current gas prices along their route using the AAA TripTik Travel planner.

Here’s what Gas Buddy forecasts for national gas prices by month in 2024:

• January: Range $2.84 - $3.37; average $3.11
• February: Range $2.96 - $3.43; average $3.20
• March: Range $3.19 - $3.58; average $3.39
• April: Range $3.19 - $3.58; average $3.52
• May: Range $3.44 - $3.89; average $3.67
• June: Range $3.41 - $3.82; average $3.62
• July: Range $3.32 - $3.74; average $3.53
• August: Range $3.28 - $3.92; average $3.60
• September: Range $3.24 - $3.67; average $3.46
• October: Range $3.16 - $3.52; average $3.34
• November: Range $2.99 - $3.31; average $3.15
• December: Range $2.81 - $3.16; average $2.99

U.S. fuel prices reached record highs in 2022 due to COVID-19 supply issues, near-record inflation, and Russia’s war in Ukraine. The forecast author, Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, said he expects prices will normalize next year, with prices averaging $3.38 a gallon, compared to $3.51 in 2023.

“As 2023 fades away, I’m hopeful those $5 and $6 prices for gasoline and diesel will also fade into memory,” De Haan said in a statement. “The global refining picture continues to improve, providing more capacity and peace of mind that record-setting prices will stay away from the pump this year. 2024 will feature some volatility, unexpected outages and disruptions, and potentially weather-related issues, but I do not expect it to feature record prices — anywhere.”

If the forecast is correct, 2024 prices will be around the level of 2014 price of $3.34 a gallon. The forecast makes allowances for seasonal peaks around Memorial Day when prices could go over $4 a gallon.

During other major holidays, gas prices are expected to remain well below that level, with per gallon prices ranging from $2.83-$3.16 possible by next Christmas.

Drivers nationwide are expected to spend about $446.9 billion to fuel their vehicles in 2024, compared to $479.2 billion in 2023. Both are well below $526.3 billion spent in 2022.
By household, gasoline spending is expected to be about $2,407 in 2024, compared with $2,460 in 2023 and $2,715 in 2022.