Another 2-4 Inches Of Rain Possible As Weakening Ophelia Churns Over VA

Updated at 8:30 p.m.

VIRGINIA —Flood watches remain in Northern Virginia overnight as Tropical Depression Ophelia continues moving north through the state, with gusty winds near tropical storm force possible near the coast and several more inches of rain possible before the weekend is out.

Ophelia was downgraded from a tropical storm by the National Hurricane Center’s 8 p.m. update Saturday, and the storm was approaching the Richmond area (in Waverly, precisely).

“On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia is expected to continue moving over southeastern Virginia through tonight, and then over the Delmarva Peninsula by tomorrow,” said the National Hurricane Center. “Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Ophelia is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone tomorrow.”

The National Weather Service issued a flood watch from 8 p.m. Saturday through 8 a.m. Sunday for Washington, D.C., and parts of Northern Virginia, warning that flash flooding is a risk in urban areas because of excessive rainfall.

The flood watch covers the District of Columbia, Fairfax, Arlington, Falls Church, Alexandria, Stafford, Spotsylvania, King George, Prince William, Manassas and Manassas Park. Other areas included are: Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair.

"As the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia moves north along or near the Interstate 95 corridor, it will produce an area of enhanced rainfall. This is expected to result in 2 to 3 inches of rain, with high end amounts of 4 inches possible," the NWS alert said. "This heavy rainfall will occur in a 1 to 2 hour period, and could result in flash flooding within the urban I-95 corridor."

The storm made landfall at about 6:15 a.m. on Saturday near Emerald Isle, North Carolina, according to the National Hurricane Center. At landfall, Ophelia had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, just shy of hurricane strength.

"Ophelia remains a relatively large system, with tropical storm force winds extending as far as 270 miles from the center," according to the NWS forecast. "The strongest winds (up to 70 mph) closer to the core of the storm are expected to impact eastern North Carolina today, with scattered tree damage and power outages possible."

Coastal flooding is a serious concern for areas along the Tidal Potomac and shores of the Chesapeake Bay as the storm pushes a surge of water northward, especially true near high tide for areas in Annapolis and Baltimore that typically flood during major coastal storms, the Capital Weather Gang reported.

Some thunder could accompany the heavy rain Saturday afternoon and night, with a slight chance of a couple brief tornadoes in southern Maryland, according to the Post.

Anticipating the tropical storm impacting several large population areas in Virginia this weekend, Gov. Glenn Youngkin issued a state of emergency on Friday.

“As this storm has organized and strengthened, it's becoming clear based on the latest forecasts that impacts to the commonwealth are likely,” said Governor Glenn Youngkin. “We want to ensure that all communities, particularly those with the greatest anticipated impact, have the resources they need to respond and recover from the effects of this storm. Since this storm has the potential to have a range of impacts across numerous localities in the commonwealth, I encourage all Virginians and visitors to keep up with the latest forecast for their area from a trusted source, make a plan, and have their emergency kits ready.”

In addition, Virginia State Police urged residents to stay off the roads as tropical storm conditions move into the state. Forecasts are calling for areas east of Interstate 95 to be affected the most by heavy rains and strong winds that could top 50 mph.

Virginia State Police have all available troopers and supervisors working through the weekend as the storm makes it through the Fredericksburg and Northern Virginia regions. "To prevent unnecessary traffic crashes from occurring on Virginia’s highways, state police advises residents to postpone travel plans and avoid driving, if possible," the agency said.

A coastal flood warning for the Potomac shoreline in the District was in effect from 10 a.m. Saturday to 7 a.m. on Sunday, according to the AccuWeather forecast.

Expect 1 to 2 feet of water above ground to inundate the low-lying areas and cause tidal flooding, according to AccuWeather. Tides will be 2 to 2 1/2 feet above normal. The next high tides in the Washington Channel will be Saturday at 2:45 p.m. and Sunday at 3:09 a.m.

Widespread rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is expected throughout the Baltimore-Washington area, with localized amounts of up to 5 inches possible, according to NWS.

A wind advisory was in effect from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Saturday for portions of central, northeast and southern Maryland, the District of Columbia and central and northern Virginia. Northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph are expected in the DC-Baltimore region. Gusts up to 50 mph and 60 mph are likely along the immediate shore of the Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac.

The Virginia Emergency Support Team is following the tropical storm's progress and coordinating resources as it nears the state. The following are recommendations for Virginia residents:

• Make a plan. Plan in advance a route to a safe place, how you will stay in contact with family and friends, and what you will do in different situations. Additional planning resources are available at https://www.vaemergency.gov/prepare/make-a-plan.
• Prepare an emergency kit. For a list of recommended emergency supplies to sustain your household before, during, and after the storm visit: VAemergency.gov/emergency-kit.
• Stay informed. Virginians should follow the Virginia Department of Emergency Management on X and Facebook for preparedness updates and their local National Weather Service office for the latest weather forecast, advisories, watches or warnings. Download the FEMA app on your smartphone to receive mobile alerts from the National Weather Service. Power outages are always a concern during weather events—make sure you have a battery-operated radio available so you can still receive life-saving alerts.

For more information about preparing your business, your family, and your property against hurricane threats visit: VAemergency.gov/hurricanes and ready.gov/hurricanes.

Here is the NWS forecast for northern Virginia:

Saturday: Rain. High near 63. Windy, with a northeast wind 21 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Tonight: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 59. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Sunday: Showers likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 66. Northeast wind 10 to 13 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. Northwest wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday: A chance of showers, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. North wind 8 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.