Clinton Sees Slight Bump in Lead in Virginia After Debate, Survey Shows

Democrat Hillary Clinton has slightly increased her lead in Virginia over Republican Donald Trump, in the first statewide survey of likely Virginia voters since the Sept. 26 presidential debate, according to a new survey by the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, Newport News, Va., the Center announced Monday.

Clinton leads Trump 42-35 percent on the full five-candidate ballot, indicating a very slight 1 point debate bump, the Center said. Although overall support for Clinton increased 3 points since September, moving from 39 percent to 42 percent, the spread between Trump and Clinton increased by only 1 point because Trump’s support grew from 33 percent to 35 percent.

Clinton has increased her lead over Trump to a 7-point advantage (42-35 percent) according to the new Wason Center survey. The survey was conducted Sept. 27-30 among 892 likely Virginia voters, with an
overall margin of error of +/- 3.7 % at the 95 percent level of confidence.

“Hillary Clinton’s debate performance has improved her position in Virginia slightly,” said Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center. “Most significant is perhaps her improved support among younger voters, a critical part of the Obama coalition.”

The findings come on the eve of the first debate between the nominees' runnings mates, Democrat Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia and Republican Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana. The 90-minute debate is scheduled for Tuesday night at 9 p.m. Longwood University in Farmville, Va., moderated by CBS News’s Elaine Quijano. The debate will be broadcast live on C-SPAN, ABC, CBS, FOX and NBC, as well as all cable news channels including CNN, Fox News and MSNBC among others.

Also read: Live Stream: Vice Presidential Debate Between Mike Pence and Tim Kaine

Changes in the overall complexion of the race are modest, but changes within particular demographicgroups are significant, although the margin of error for subgroups is higher, according to the Center.

Millenials

Millennial voters moved away from the Libertarian ticket and other third-party candidates and into Clinton’s camp, the Center noted. Among voters ages 18-34, Clinton has increased her support from 34 percent to 42 percent.

Independents

“Following what was by most accounts a difficult first debate for Donald Trump, our survey finds
significant shifts in support in a key voting group: Independents,” said Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center. “Although Trump had an 11-point lead among Independents in our September survey, Clinton now leads that group by 6 points.”

Clinton’s "striking gain" from 21 percent to 34 percent among Independents came partially from Trump, but even more at the expense of Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, the Center noted. Johnson’s support among Independents dropped 11 points, from 31 percent in September to 20 percent in this survey. The Libertarian lost ground in every demographic segment, and his overall support dropped from 15 percent to 12 percent.

Johnson, the former governor of New Mexico, had two high-profile goofs in two recent televised interviews on MSNBC: The first occurred on the "Morning Joe" program, where he was asked by journalist Mike Barnicle to reflect on the crisis in the Syrian city of Aleppo. He replied, “What is Aleppo?” A second gaffe took place Sept. 28, when MSNBC's Chris Matthews asked Johnson to name one foreign leader he respects and looks up to. The former governor couldn't answer the question and replied “I guess I’m having an Aleppo moment."

Male voters

Clinton has also grown her support among men (+4 points), voters surveyed in military households (+4 points), and regionally in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, the Center said. Trump maintains his strength in Southwest Virginia, the only region in Virginia he leads, and he has very slightly reduced Clinton’s lead in the Richmond-Central Virginia region.

Gender, education

The largest gaps between the candidates other than party identification continue to be gender and education, the Center noted. Clinton has an 18-point advantage over Trump among women.

Although Clinton maintains a small lead among college-educated white voters, she trails Trump in Virginia by 31 points among white voters who do not have a college degree – actually an improvement from the 39-point gap in the pre-debate survey, the Center said. As with Independents, Clinton’s gains in this group in this survey came mostly from Libertarian Johnson.

The Wason Center will release four additional tracking surveys in Virginia among likely voters leading up to the November 8 election.

Summary of key findings from Christopher Newport University survey:

• Clinton leads Trump 42-35 percent on the full five-candidate ballot, indicating a very slight 1 point debate bump.
• Support for Clinton among Millennial voters increased by 7 percentage points, while their support for Trump was unchanged.
• Independents significantly shifted support to Clinton from Trump and Johnson following the Sept. 27 debate.
• Only 73 percent of Republicans indicate they plan to vote for Trump, a 5-point drop from the September survey. Clinton gained a point among Democrats, to 88 percent.
• Among voters in military households, where Trump had a 7-point lead over Clinton in the September survey, Trump and Clinton are now within 1 percent (37-36 percent).

PHOTO: Photos of Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore via Flickr / Creative Commons