How Much Snow Will We See This Winter In VA? See 4 Predictions

VIRGINIA — How cold and snowy will the upcoming winter be in Virginia?

While winter doesn't officially start until Dec. 21, meteorological winter begins this weekend — on Dec. 1.

Several forecasters have put forward their predictions for how snowy the season will be here in the Commonwealth. Here's a look at what they're saying:

AccuWeather

An AccuWeather 2024-25 winter forecast predicts warmer weather and reduced snowfall. A late-winter cold blast is also possible, however.

Winter will have some “meteorological twists and turns” that could bring bursts of heavy snow and blasts of bitterly cold air, according to the private weather company's forecast. One of the major factors playing into this long-range forecast is the La Niña weather pattern, which can influence the trajectory of snowstorms.

Those living north and west of the Baltimore-Washington area will see lower temperatures and possibly receive more snow than last winter, the weather company said.

“Most areas in the Northeast will receive more snow this season than last winter. An uptick in snow is also likely across parts of the Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan,” according to AccuWeather’s forecast.

Most of Virginia, with the exception of the Hampton Roads area, will experience blasts of cold weather and the possiblity of snow in December. However, the cold weather will be short-lived, as a new weather pattern emerges at the beginning of 2025. This will result in milder temperatures across the state and less snow, according to AccuWeather’s forecast.

February is the most probable month for the arrival of a polar vortex — a large area of cold, low-pressure air rotating around Earth’s poles that can expand in the winter and send cold air southward.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac

In its 2024-2025 outlook, The Old Farmer’s Almanac released calls for the coming season to be "a calmer, gentler winter" for much of the United States.

“This winter, temperatures will be up and snowfall down throughout most of the United States,” said Carol Connare, the Old Almanac’s editor-in-chief. “While there will still be plenty of chilly temperatures and snow for most slopes, the high heating costs associated with the season shouldn’t hit so hard. We’re predicting a temperate, uneventful winter — potentially a welcome reprieve from the extremes of recent years.”

Virginia is split between the coastal Atlantic Corridor in Region 7, while central and western counties are in Region 3 with the Appalachian area, which should also see a more temperate winter than usual. The corridor includes suburban Northern Virginia, as well as major cities from Boston to Washington, D.C., and Richmond.

This region should look for average to slightly above average daily highs during winter (though 2% colder than average during February). The region will also experience shots of cold in mid-December, early and late January, and late February, the publication said.

Precipitation in the DC suburbs and coastal Virginia will be slightly below normal this winter. In this region, snowfall will be below normal in the north and above normal in the south. The most snow is expected to arrive in late December and late February.

Region 7 stretches south from Frederick, Maryland, to Roanoke and on to Asheville, North Carolina. In that swath of the Commonwealth, winter temperatures will be slightly warmer than normal, and below-normal precipitation is expected. The coldest periods will occur from mid-January into early February and in late February.

Precipitation will be below normal across Region 7. However, look for average snowfall in the north and above-normal snowfall in the southern Appalachians.

The Farmers' Almanac

The 208th edition of the Farmers' Almanac predicts a "Wet Winter Whirlwind" for the 2024-2025 winter season. Its forecast calls for rapid-fire storms that will bring both rain and snow, with little downtime in between.

"We anticipate the winter of 2024-25 will be wet and cold for most locations," The Farmers' Almanac predicts.

Mild temperatures mixed with snowy conditions are expected this winter in Maryland, the editors said.

The Farmers' Almanac says it is "red flagging" the final full week of January over most of the nation's eastern half. Expect a very active storm track with frequent bouts of heavy precipitation along with strong gusty winds.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center

Warmer than normal temperatures are expected this winter in Virginia, according to a new winter 2024-25 outlook for December, January and February.

The probabilities for above normal precipitation versus below normal precipitation are about 50-50 in Northern Virginia, according to the updated winter outlook released Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. But, the coastal region and southeast Virginia have a 33 to 40 percent chance of below normal precipitation.

Specifically, the outlook puts the chance of above normal temperatures at between 40 percent and 50 percent, and the chance of above normal precipitation at 50 percent in Northern Virginia and DC. A small corner of southwestern Virginia has a 33 to 40 percent chance of above-normal temperatures, the outlook said.

NOAA said data supports the development of a weak La Niña that lacks some of the blustery punch traditionally seen in such climate patterns. In the Northeast, temperatures are expected to be above normal up and down the Eastern Seaboard. Precipitation is expected to be above normal in much of the region, that forecast predicts.