NoVA Housing Market: Current Patterns, Trends & Opportunities from The Minken Housing Index

Real estate has always been local, and the story can look very different from one town to the next. That’s the idea behind The Minken Housing Index, which tracks single-family home trends each month to show how prices and sales are moving in individual communities. After years of producing this index in Northern New Jersey, I’ve now expanded it to Northern Virginia to provide a close-up view of our local market, from Vienna and McLean to Fairfax, Alexandria, and beyond. My goal is to help homeowners, buyers, and anyone curious about the market see the patterns behind the headlines and understand what’s really happening in their own backyard.

October Housing Market Insights: Northern Virginia Edition

October 2025 brought an interesting mix of stability and growth to Northern Virginia’s housing market, according to the latest Minken Housing Index. While some communities saw modest shifts in average home prices, others experienced notable increases, reflecting the region’s continued appeal to buyers.

Average Home Prices

Across the towns in The Minken Housing Index - Virginia Edition, average home prices were generally on the rise compared with October 2024. As shown in the data chart, Vienna remained relatively stable, with a slight increase of 0.5%, while Oakton and Falls Church saw modest gains of 3.8%. Arlington and Alexandria experienced double-digit growth in average home prices, rising 9.9% and 10%, respectively. The standout increases were in Herndon and Annandale, where prices jumped 16.6% and 17.4%. McLean was the exception, with a 4% decline in average sale price, possibly reflecting a small adjustment in the luxury segment.

Homes Sold

The number of homes sold in October 2025 also highlights interesting trends. As shown in the data chart, Arlington led the way with a 39.6% increase in sales, while Oakton and Alexandria saw strong gains of 30% and 27.9%. Vienna and Herndon also experienced healthy growth, up 17.1% and 17.5%, respectively. Conversely, Annandale experienced a decline in sales, dropping 29% from last year.

Looking Ahead: Opportunities in the Market

These local housing numbers suggest that overall demand remains strong across Northern Virginia, particularly in Arlington, Alexandria, and Oakton, while high-end markets like McLean may be seeing a slight cooling. Sellers in Herndon and Annandale can take heart from rising prices, even as fewer transactions in Annandale suggest buyer activity is slowing, likely due to high mortgage rates and broader economic uncertainty. This still points to opportunities for sellers in a resilient market. Overall, October 2025 proved to be a dynamic market, offering pockets of growth for both buyers and sellers.

As we head into the holiday season of November and December, the housing market traditionally slows down as many people focus on gatherings of gratitude with family and friends. With fewer buyers out shopping for homes, there tends to be less competition for available properties. At the same time, sellers who stay on the market during this period often have a stronger sense of urgency. Some sellers may have already moved away, and their homes could now be vacant. These motivated sellers are typically focused on realistic pricing and may be more open to negotiation, a trend we haven’t seen much of since the post-pandemic home buying frenzy. There is always opportunity in the housing market and I'm here to help you find it. Whether you’re a buyer or a seller, reach out to me to discuss how we can make this season’s market work for you as well as prepare for the 2026 housing market, which is expecting to be quite exciting!

Suzy Minken is a realtor with Compass based in McLean, Virginia and a recognized published voice on real estate and design trends. Suzy's insights have been featured in The New York Times, The Washington Post, Barron's, and more. You can connect with her on Instagram and LinkedIn, as well as via email at: suzy.minken@compass.com.